Page 147 - 2022-08-01 Paddling Magazine

KAYAKING

ROCK THE BOAT
Gut Check

Does 10,000 hours really equal good judgment? Research says, “Ahhh, no.” by fiona hough

THOSE WITH A LOT OF TRAINING and experience so complacent we didn’t even recognize the scope of
outdoors like to think we know what we’re doing when the hazard. We also become more comfortable with
making decisions in risk environments. Our ability risk when it is familiar, which is a well-documented
to make sound judgments about the terrain, timing, heuristic trap in the study of avalanche incidents. The
group management and safety is something we gener- more we paddle a section of exposed coastline without
ally believe improves the longer we spend in the field. incident, the more our brains decide it’s safe, even though
For many recreational paddlers, the number of days the risk hasn’t objectively changed.
on the water is a badge of honor and a way of pro- Event feedback is crystal clear—the shattered kayak,
viding evidence of competence. “Dude, I’ve paddled dislocated shoulder or hypothermic client will all make
120 days this year so far!” When advertising guiding us think twice the next time we paddle that type of
services, guides will highlight the number of years we water—but it is much less frequent than non-event
have worked in the field on our websites because we feedback. The more unacknowledged near misses
believe it instills confidence. Who wouldn’t choose we collect, the more evidence we have of our true
a guide with 20 years and thousands of field days of decision-making prowess.
experience over one with only three years? Three years, In the paddling world, we’ve adopted the rationale
by the way, is the average length of time most guides more is inherently better. The more field days you
remain in their field careers. have, the higher you can go in the certification levels.
The common assumption is more days equals more You can’t move from one level to the next or take the
skill. As Malcolm Gladwell points out in his bestselling next course or exam without putting in a certain
book Outliers, it takes at least 10,000 hours—or 2,000 number of days in between, ranging from 30 to 200
five-hour paddling days—for someone to become an depending on the level. Certainly, there should be
expert in any field. Practice, repetition and skill develop- a minimum number of days of guiding experience
ment all take time, and the more you do it, the better someone earns before moving up to more complex
you get. Right? terrain and greater leadership responsibility. But the
Maybe not. assumption inherent in these systems is the more days
When assessing risk and making good decisions you have, the more competent you will be at your job
based on those assessments, time is not the only fac- and the better your judgment will be. However, time
tor. Sometimes the more “time in” we have equals an alone does not equal competency.
increased likelihood of an incident and poorer decision So, what is the antidote to this gap between experi-
making in outdoor risk environments. ence and the development of good judgment and sound
Over the past decade, studies from the National decision-making in risk environments?
Outdoor Leadership School (NOLS) and academia Watch for risk creep in your terrain choices and
have correlated more instructor years in the field with paddling circles—before you go, consider the what-ifs,
higher incident rates. A few factors cause this increase and even in familiar terrain, make a plan individually
in incidents in an experienced instructor’s career. and as a group for shit-hits-the-fan scenarios.
First, as our confidence increases on the water over Develop your intuition. Put the ego and external
time, often so can our tolerance for higher levels of pressures aside and get quiet enough to tune in to
risk. As our skill level goes up, we tend to move into what your gut tells you.
more challenging terrain where higher consequence Pay attention to what is happening. Even the most
incidents are more likely to occur. Second: Ego breeds familiar terrain can have a drastically different charac-
complacency. Decreased attention to detail can result in ter and set of consequences depending on the weather,
poor decision-making. We can become less attentive to season, and the group you’re with. Know the forecast
hazards when we adopt a been-there-done-that attitude. and the terrain, but pay attention to the actual condi-
Non-event feedback is the crux of the matter. As we tions, including human factors.
go through our paddling careers, we are continuously Finally, make a study of near misses—your own
exposed to near-miss situations. A near miss is where and those of others. There is copious wisdom in the
something could have gone wrong but didn’t. It would be world of outdoor risk management we can learn from.
nice to think all near misses are obvious, but sometimes, Understand the heuristic traps leading to misadventure
perhaps often, we don’t notice the giant boomer we just and use this information to analyze your own decisions.
paddled over exploding in a gnarly mess of barnacles and
white water behind us. We may squeeze by in situations Fiona Hough has worked as a paddlesports guide,
where we think we had miles to spare, or have become instructor and trainer for more than 25 years.

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