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POLICY EUROPEAN
BRIEF COONUFNOCRIELIGN
RELATIONS
ecfr.eu
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EUROPE
Gustav Gressel
SUMMARY Russia has surprised the West with its military capacity
twice in succession. First, in Ukraine, the Russian
• Russia has implemented far-reaching military armed forces overturned Western assumptions about
their inefficiency with a swift and coordinated “hybrid
reforms to create a more professional and war”, combining subversion and infiltration with troop
combat-ready armed forces that can swiftly deployment to gain an early military advantage. The
deploy abroad, backed by expertise in non- effectiveness of Russia’s action unnerved Western planners,
conventional warfare tactics such as subversion who scrambled to devise a response. Then, in Syria, Russia
and propaganda. used military force outside the borders of the former Soviet
Union for the first time since the end of the Cold War. Its
• The West has misunderstood these reforms – forceful intervention in defence of President Bashar al-
Assad made the United States look hesitant and indecisive,
focusing on shortcomings in equipment – and, though the long-term impact of Russia’s gambit remains
as a result, has dangerously underestimated uncertain.
Russia’s military capacity, as shown by its
response to the Ukraine crisis. Russia’s new military boldness and adventurism has left
Western observers puzzled, but it does not come out of
• Russia could now overwhelm any of the nowhere: current Russian strategy is the culmination of
a systematic military reform that has been insufficiently
countries in the post-Soviet sphere if they were appreciated by the European Union and the US. An
isolated from the West, but it lacks the capacity examination of this reform process will allow us to assess
for effective long-term military action further the current strengths and limitations of Russia’s military,
afield, such as in Syria. and to understand how Russia’s leaders plan to use military
force and how the West should respond.
• Europe’s military advantage over Russia
The examination also reveals that, although Russia’s
is undermined by low combat-readiness, action in Syria is now in the spotlight, it is a sideshow to
understaffing, and the need to coordinate Russia’s military planning. The Syrian deployment does
between countries. not draw on the core strengths of the armed forces, or on
Moscow’s military vision. That vision is centred on the
• Europe should develop a united political Eurasian landmass, and above all those areas surrounding
Russia’s post-Cold War borders.
response to Russian expansionism, including
a coordinated position on nuclear deterrence,
while preparing for hybrid scenarios. It will
need the support of the US, but EU crisis
response agencies would be key in a hybrid war.
