Page 27 - Forbes - India (January 2020)

State of the economy

to the implementation of stricter
pollution norms, point to a consumer Diesel Sales (‘000 MT)
willing to put money on the table.
As GDP growth slowed in each of Nov 2019
the last five quarters, the questions Oct 2019
most asked were: ‘Have we reached
the bottom and how fast can growth Sept 2019
return?’ While the longer-term Aug 2019
verdict on whether growth numbers July 2019
are structurally headed lower is
not out, numbers from Maruti and 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
commentary from consumer goods Source Petroleum Planning and Analysis cell
companies point to initial signs of the
decline in growth numbers stabilising. Air Travel (million passengers)
Data from disparate sources, the
Index of Industrial Production, diesel Nov 2019
sales, number of air passengers, Oct 2019
electricity consumption and new Sept 2019
project announcements all indicate
that the worst may be behind us. Aug 2019
But there are few signs of India July 2019

10.5 11 11.5 12 12.5 13 13.5
Source DGcA

Consumer Loans Rising Capacity Utilisation (%) 27
Credit card debt Q1FY19 73.8
Up 24.1 percent in the year to November 2019
Q2FY19 74.8
Personal Loans
Up 21.3 percent in the year to November 2019 Q3FY19 75.9
Source rBI Q4FY19 75.1
Q1FY20 73.6
reaching the 7.3 percent growth Source rBI
rates it registered in the decade
to 2020. The key reason: For the
last seven years, the economy has fiscal. “We have had a standard
been held up mainly on account economic slowdown and now we will
of consumption spending and have a standard economic upturn,”
government expenditure. Net exports says Saurabh Mukherjea, founder of
and investments have been comatose. Marcellus Investment Managers.
In the absence of these, the chances of
higher growth numbers are low. On A Consumer-Led sLowdown
January 7, the government-released Since 2011-12, growth has been
figure for anticipated 2019-20 growth overly reliant on consumption
stood at 5 percent, up from 4.5 percent spending. In 2017-18, the last year
in the second quarter of the current for which statistics are available, it

the worSt may Be Behind uS, But there are
few SignS of india reaching the 7.3% growth
rateS it regiStered in the decade to 2020

january 31, 2020 • forbes india