Page 4 - Forbes - India (January 2020)

By reducing unemployment, growth can
Letter From The Editor serve as a useful corrective for social unrest

When Growth is the Antidote

hy is economic growth important? Well, inflation and low wages too may have played their part.
it can help increase tax revenues, which In India, the ongoing strife coincides with industrial
would mean more spending on public activity and investments hitting rock-bottom. Protests
W services. A bump in the GDP will increase across the country have been triggered by not-misplaced
consumption, which means more room for investments. fears of a section of Indians losing their citizenship
Economic growth can also serve as a useful antidote if the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 (CAA) is
to social unrest by reducing unemployment, particularly followed up with a National Registry of Citizens; other
among the youth. In 2013, The International Labour sections of the Indian society joined them in solidarity
Organization (ILO) came out with its annual World of and students in empathy with their brethren who
Work Report titled ‘Repairing the Economic and Social were victims of violence on university campuses.
Fabric’. This was five years after the global financial The two—an economic downturn and demonstrations
crisis; employment rates exceeded pre-crisis levels in against CAA—may, on the surface, have little in common.
30 percent of the countries analysed, including those But here’s the danger: With unemployment at a three-year
in southern Europe and the Arab region. The ILO high (8.5 percent in October, according to CMIE data),
report concludes that the rising unemployment, a there is the real danger of joblessness fanning the angst.
drop in labour force participation and a deterioration It’s against such a backdrop that Budget 2020 becomes
in the quality of employment conspired to fuel social critical. What is the recipe for kickstarting investments
tensions in many of the countries—remember the and consumption? And what can we expect on February
‘Occupy’ movement that began on Wall Street and 1? Samar Srivastava and Salil Panchal attempt to answer
spread to Europe, and the Tahrir Square protests in those questions in our pre-Budget package. We also take
Egypt that helped topple President Hosni Mubarak. stock of initiatives announced in previous budgets—
4 The ILO devised the Social Unrest Index to determine a Varsha Meghani analyses the progress of health care
link between peoples’ discontent and economic indicators. scheme Ayushman Bharat; Pranit Sarda identifies the
The index was created with five variables: Citizens’ roadblocks for the highway construction programme,
confidence in government, living standard, local job market, Bharatmala Pariyojana; Divya J Shekhar scrutinises the
freedom in their lives and access to internet. The results often-inadequate past efforts to make Budgets gender-
indicated that the risk of unrest was highest in the EU due sensitive; and Naandika Tripathi plunges into the Study
to its record high unemployment rate of 12 percent (23.9 in India programme to attract international students.
percent for the youth), and a raging recession. That would, Away from the Budget, another not-to-miss feature is
over the years, pave the way for demands of countries to Pooja Sarkar’s deep dive into the towers that the Lodhas
exit the Union, fear of the foreigner and a resurgence in built—they’re selling well, generating revenue and profits,
right-wing nationalism. Corporate greed was the trigger but the problem may well be the debt piled up. Can next-
for Occupy Wall Street. And liberation from tyranny for gen scion Abhisheck Lodha meet his objective of being net
the Egyptian revolution, although unemployment, food debt-free within 30 months? The answer is on page 18.

Brian Carvalho SToriES To Look ouT For
Editor, Forbes India
brian.carvalho@nw18.com

Best,

(From left) Funds have been allocated to make budgets gender-sensitive,
but their outcomes have been inadequate; fifteen months after the launch
of health scheme Ayushman Bharat, stakeholders have mixed views

forbEs india • january 31, 2020