Page 6 - Flight International (January 2020)

COMMENT

Moondust

y the end of this year or early next, we
Bshould get a look at the future of deep-
space travel. It will not carry a crew, but
NASA’s Artemis I around-the-Moon-and-
back flight will demonstrate the capsule,
Andre Cros/Ville de Toulouse/Wikimedia Commons tested to carry astronauts back to where
life-support system and mighty Space
Launch System rocket being designed and

they left off in 1972 with the final Apollo
mission.
The plan is then – on the orders of Pres-
ident Donald Trump – to press on and
will carry a human crew around the
Moon, and three or more Artemis support
Still going strong land American boots by 2024. Artemis II
missions will deliver and assemble the
Spin cycle Gateway space station, which will sit
most of the way to the Moon and serve as
jumping-off point for surface sorties.
Before we get too excited, we have been
In the 2000s, the turboprop airliner seemed to have run its course, but now here before. President George W Bush
Embraer believes it is time customers were given more choice in the sector aimed for a 2020 return – or maybe 2019
to mark the 50th anniversary of Apollo 11
– but his scheme was so far behind sched-
f the stars align, the world could have the was at a trickle. Only ATR and, ironically, ule and over budget that Barack Obama,
Ifirst all-new large turboprop passenger air- Bombardier, kept the faith. In 2003, just 29 air- taking office just as the financial crisis was
craft for four decades within five years. craft were delivered globally while over 300 really getting going, axed it.
The irony is that this is the proposition Bombardier and Embraer jets were shipped. Trump’s Artemis vision has delivered
from Embraer – a stalwart of jet-powered re- But the props weren’t done. New technol- a NASA budget explosion, to nearly $22
gional aircraft that helped contribute to the ogy like active noise control improved the billion this year, but even a lot more
near-extinction of the turboprop “race”. passenger experience, while engine upgrades money may not overcome the fact that
Embraer’s case for a next-generation turbo- enhanced performance. Bombardier created critical components like Gateway and a
prop airliner is a strong one – pointing to the an enlarged Dash 8 that could carry 70-80 lander can at best be said to be in
environmental and economic benefits, as passengers at jet-like speeds. And the rising development.
well as the market disruption it could bring. fuel price from around 2005 hit small-jet If Trump is not re-elected, a new
Today’s market leader, ATR, and its large- economics hard. president may be minded to spend bil-
turboprop competitor, the De Havilland Can- lions restoring crumbling American infra-
ada Dash 8 – along with smaller turboprops Deliveries have averaged a structure, educating children and fighting
such as the Saab 340 and Embraer Brasilia – climate change rather than chasing moon-
owned the regional sector for much of the healthy 100 aircraft per year dust. A second-term Trump may pivot to
late 20th century. do the same, find himself grappling with
That all changed in the mid-1990s, when a during the 2010s, with ATR recession or war, or even deciding that a
modified Canadian business jet design with the market leader behind-schedule programme should be
50 seats crashed their party. Embraer was given more time – and left in a successor’s
quick to identify the threat from the Bombar- in-tray. ■
dier CRJ, and created its own 50-seater, the See News Focus P20
ERJ. The two OEMs shipped 2,000 small re- So the large turboprop sector bounced back
gional jets between them from 1993 to 2005. as the 50-seat jet era ended. Deliveries
Their value proposition to regional opera- averaged a healthy 100 aircraft per year during
tors was compelling: big jet-like passenger the 2010s, with ATR the market leader.
experience, faster sector times and competi- Embraer – a major player in the market
tive economics. with its E-Jet series – believes the sector is
Turboprop manufacturers were caught in a ripe for disruption. It is confident it can cre-
perfect storm, as the regional jet generation ate a headache for the current turboprop
arrived in tandem with a high-profile US tur- players without diluting the market for its jet
boprop accident – the infamous Roselawn portfolio. The question is: will Embraer’s pro-
tragedy in which 68 people died – combining spective new partner Boeing have the appe-
to effectively render obsolete the propeller- tite to support such a venture? We won’t have NASA
driven airliner in North America. to wait too long to find out. ■ Artist’s impression
By the early 2000s, turboprop production See This Week P9

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