Page 86 - The Atlas of Economic Complexity

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 87

Finally, ranking 5 sorts countries according to their ex- by region:
pected contribution to total world GDP growth in the peri- In Western Europe the top contributors to world GDP growth
od to 2020. As expected, the ranking is dominated by large will be Germany (5), France (6) and United Kingdom (7). In
economies. The United States and China are expected to be Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Russia (14), Turkey (15) and
the largest contributors and are followed more distantly by Poland (20) are expected to be the leaders. Brazil (8), Mexi-
Japan and India. What is worth highlighting from ranking 5 co (10), Argentina (22) and Colombia (23) will be the largest
is the much larger importance of developing countries in the Latin American contributors. In the Middle East and North
contribution to global growth. This is highlighted by the very Africa, the top contributors are Saudi Arabia (18), Egypt (24)
large difference in incomes per capita between the top four and Israel (33).
countries. Consumers from China, India, Brazil and Mexico In South Asia, the top contributor to world GDP growth
will now be a more important part of global economic dy- will be India (4) followed distantly by Pakistan (31). South
namism, but, given that their lower incomes, their needs are Africa (28), Nigeria (38) and Angola (62) will lead the regional
radically different from those of the richer countries that ranking in Sub-Saharan Africa.
have until now led the growth process. This will shape im-
portant changes in the demand structure of future growth.
Figure 5 illustrates Ranking 5 by plotting the expected con-
tribution to total GDP of each country as a function of GDP
per capita. Map 5 shows the spatial distribution of Ranking 5.