Page 81 - History of War - Issue 30-16

NAGORNO-KARABAKH

The conl ict has made “THE COMICAL TRAGEDY OF THIS STATE OF AFFAIRS CAN’T BE
travelling in the region very
dangerous with civilian vehicles EMPHASISED ENOUGH BECAUSE IT CREATED REAL LONG-TERM
sometimes coming under i re
ANTAGONISM BETWEEN FORMER NEIGHBOURS”

an Arab word for guerillas – in Artsakh and weapons that have given it the best-equipped
transitioned to the Armenian armed forces. armed forces in the Caucasus.
He was a defence minister for several years Armenia isn’t allowing itself to be left behind.
until his election in 2008. President Sargsyan The ace up its sleeve is a minor stockpile of
calls Artsakh his home, and, despite the medium-range Scud B and Tochka ballistic
overwhelming evidence of the Azeris building missiles. Should the tactical situation in
their war machine using oil money, he knows Artsakh ever be reversed – where Azeris gain
Armenia’s own manpower and ties with Russia the upper hand – the i nal gamble is to target
is more than a match for whatever Baku can Baku’s pipelines and rei neries. Azerbaijan’s
throw at his countrymen. air and anti-air missile defences, on the other
This was very apparent during the battles in hand, are quite formidable so this particular
April. The exaggerated front line around Nagorno- option may not be as feasible as it appears.
Karabakh covers its entire 4,400 square Both sides are incapable of destroying each
kilometre territory. The Azeris launched a blitz other completely. This boils down to i ghting over
across its eastern arc supported by withering Nagorno-Karabakh over many years. As recent
artillery strikes that terrorised several villages. events have shown, this is just as inconclusive.
Once the ighting had wound down the Armenia’s precarious economy can’t
Azeris withdrew, having absorbed signiicant, withstand a sustained war. Meanwhile,
if unreported, casualties. The heavily armed President Aliyev knows domestic oil reserves
Armenian militia in Karabakh, who possess are plummeting, so there is less and less cash
substantial stocks of howitzers and tanks, were to spend on the armed forces. Neither can
bloodied as well. But the front line is back to afford a i nal showdown but each are preparing
where it was before the violence erupted. What for it. This, in effect, this may have doomed
did each side gain? Nagorno-Karabakh to never know peace.
Months earlier, with Russia and Turkey in
a war of words over the quagmire in Syria,
Moscow was reported to have discreetly FURTHER READING
offered a $200 million loan to Yerevan – for - THE ARMENIAN PEOPLE: FROM ANCIENT TIMES TO MODERN
‘
buying arms, of course. This was on top its TIMES VOLUME II EDITION’ BY RICHARD V HOVANNISIAN
guarantee of mutual defence via a 5,000-man - AZERBAIJAN: 7 YEARS OF CONFLICT’ BY HUMAN
‘
base in Gyumri not far from the Turkish border. RIGHTS WATCH
By comparison, for more than a decade now - ‘THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT’ BY SVANTE E CORNELL
Azerbaijan has paid $20 billion in imports for
COLD WAR LITE

With the Armenian and Azeri militaries evenly matched on paper, the 22-year arms race between
them is becoming a qualitative one. While Armenia is capable of assembling its own weapons
Azerbaijan’s oil and gas exports allows it a defence budget reaching $4.5 billion.
ARMENIA & AZERBAIJAN

NAGORNO-KARABA

+ 70,000 TROOPS + 20,000 (AR ) + 75,000 TROOPS
+ 430 TANKS (T-72) + EST. 500 TANKS
+ 200 TRACKED APCS + 834 TRACKED APCS
+ 400 WHEELED APCS + 1,142 WHEELED APCS
+ EST. HUNDREDS OF ANTI-TANK MISSILES + EST. HUNDREDS OF ANTI-TANK MISSILES
A T-72 tank transports local + EST. 100 SELF-PROPELLED ARTILLERY + 190 SELF-PROPELLED ARTILLERY
militia in the The Nagorno-
Karabakh War, July 1993 + 196 TOWED ARTILLERY + 240 TOWED ARTILLERY
+ EST. 1000 + LIGHT ARTILLERY (MORTARS, ETC) + EST. 1,000 + LIGHT ARTILLERY (MORTARS, ETC)
+ 150 MULTI-ROCKET LAUNCHERS + 190 MULTI-ROCKET LAUNCHERS
2016 2016 + ASSORTED SURFACE-TO-AIR MISSILES + ASSORTED SURFACE-TO-AIR MISSILES
In February, Russia Azeri artillery and tanks + LESS THAN 30 BALLISTIC MISSILES + UNVERIFIED STOCKPILE OF BALLISTIC MISSILES
announces a $200 million break through Armenian lines + 24 COMBAT AIRCRAFT + 29 COMBAT AIRCRAFT
loan for a weapons deal in Nagorno-Karabakh on 2
with Armenia. The move is April. The i ghting lasts for + 15 COMBAT HELICOPTERS + 18 COMBAT HELICOPTERS Images: Getty, TopFoto
seen as a counterbalance days, and ofi cially ends on 5 + N/A WARSHIPS + 31 SMALL PATROL CRAFT
against growing Turkish April. There are hundreds of
inl uence over Azerbaijan. casualties on both sides.

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