Page 54 - All About History - Issue 29-15
P. 54

What if…
        JAPAN HAD NOT STRUCK PEARL HARBOR?





                                                        Troops of Chinese 179th Brigade   “For Japan, Pearl Harbor
                                                     departing Taiyuan, Shanxi Province,
                                                        China for the front lines in 1937
                                                                               was really the sideshow –
                                                                               they were trying to get rid

                                                                               of the US fleet of ships”


                                                                               ally because there was nothing strategically useful about
                                                                               them. However, French Indochina and Dutch Indonesia were
                                                                               definitely going to be invaded. For Japan, Pearl Harbor was
                                                                               really the sideshow – they were trying to get rid of the US fleet
                                                                               of ships and attempting to stop supplies to the British. It was
                                                                               not about taking Hawaii. Their interest was in expanding to
                                                                               Southeast Asia and removing the Western powers.
                                                                               Let’s try another hypothetical situation – Japan decides
                                                                               not to attack the Philippines but withdraws from China.
                                                                               Might the USA have come to terms with loosening their
         Japanese soldiers crossing the                                        trade embargo? And might Japan have retained its
         border from China into the British                                    empire in Southeast Asia?
         colony of Hong Kong in 1941
                                                                               I think this is very unlikely. The Philippines is in the middle
                                                                               of the South China Sea and it was able to block Japanese
                                                                               supply routes so it really had to fall. But let’s imagine a
                                                                               situation where Japan is just battling against the European
                                                                               colonial powers – it wants them out of there and Tokyo wants
                                                                               to run things. The British were not strong at the time and
                                                                               they did not fight a strong war in Burma. In the end they
                                                                               were only able to battle the Japanese because of help from
                                                                               the Americans. The French, certainly, would not have been
                                                                               able to fight back until 1945, so Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos
                                                                               would have remained Japanese. In Indonesia, the Japanese
                                                                               invasion was transformative because it broke down Dutch
                                                                               power. It also increased Indonesian confidence and the
                                                                               movement for independence, which would have happened
                                                                               but they would have been fighting the Japanese. In the end,
                                                                               if this had transpired – and we take out the Philippines and
                                                                               Pearl Harbor – you have another very different history. The




                                                                                                        O Pearl Harbor is struck
        How woulditbedifferent?                                                                          A surprise attack on the naval
                                                                                                         base in Hawaii, an attempt
                                                                                                         to cripple the US Navy and
                                                                                                         halt supplies, gives the White
                                      O Japan creates the puppet                                         House full public support to
                                       stateofManchukuo                                                  enter World War II – in Asia and
                                       After the 1931 invasion of Manchuria, and                         Europe. 7 December 1941
                                       believing that all of Asia should be unified
                                       under the rule of Emperor Hirohito,
                                       Japan creates a new state, Manchukuo,
        Realtimeline                   locatedininner(Chinese)Mongolia.          Realtimeline
                                       15 September 1932


        1895
        O Japan Invades                                                          Alternativetimeline
          Taiwan                        O TheoutbreakoftheSino-JapaneseWar
          Believe it or not but           Although tensions between the two countries had
          the road to Pearl               been high after the invasion of Manchuria and
          Harbor begins                   creation of Manchukuo, it is the increasing number   O TheoutbreakoftheSino-JapaneseWar
          here. The East                  of Japanese soldiers deployed to the mainland that   Japan’s most challenging battlefront
          Asian island is                 finally breaks Chinese patience. When a Japanese   since its annexation of Taiwan and Korea
          invaded by the                  private fails to return to his post, his squad demand   many decades prior begins. However, the
          Japanese, whose                 to enter the walled town of Wanping. When the   army–despiteitsreputationforbrutality
          empire begins.                  Chinese refuse, the Japanese respond with force.   –attemptstowinoverheartsandminds.
          29 May –                        What may have been a simple disagreement was the   Nanjing is treated especially carefully.
          21 October 1895                 spark that lit a brutal eight-year war. 7 July 1937  7July1937
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