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196 AVOIDING COMPLACENCY


                                             t is often easier for people
          IN CONTEXT                         outside a company to spot
                                         I complacency than it is for those
          FOCUS
                                         inside; executives are sometimes
          Business change
                                         blind to it until their company
          KEY DATES                      plunges into a downward spiral.   A strategic inflection point is
          1979 Michael Porter writes     Research in Motion (RIM),        a time in the life of a business
          How Competitive Forces Shape   manufacturer of the once-iconic    when its fundamentals are
          Strategy, saying that managers   BlackBerry, developed the idea of     about to change.
          must always be aware of what   sending and receiving emails on          Andy Grove
          the competition is doing.      mobile phones, and their innovation
                                         helped them to become the market
          1994 In The Empty Raincoat:    leader. However, RIM rested on its
          Making Sense of the Future,    success instead of continuing to
          Charles Handy uses a graph     innovate, and did not notice or
          to illustrate how organizations   foresee the direction in which
          have to be alert and respond    Apple’s products were developing.   framed by five questions (see
          to threats.                    The rival technology company’s   below), and became the title of one
                                         iPhone delivered mobile emails and a  of Grove’s books. Grove had fled the
          1996 Andy Grove writes Only
                                         range of other features. RIM quickly   communist regime in Hungary, and
          the Paranoid Survive.
                                         went from being the market leader   learned from a young age that
          2010 In The Black Swan:        into a period of decline, because it   paranoia could be a useful survival
          The Impact of the Highly       had become complacent instead    skill. Many years later, when he
          Improbable, Nassim Nicholas    of remaining alert to technological   joined Intel, he transferred the skills
          Taleb explains that we cannot   change, or threats from competitors.  of watching out for himself to
          predict the future from the       It is human nature to relax when  monitoring the company, steering
          past, so must expect (and      things are going well, but history   it safely through a series of threats.
          prepare for) the unexpected.   shows this is the very moment to
                                         be wary. Former CEO of Intel, Andy   Strategic inflection point
                                         Grove, believes that “Success    Every business faces change.
                                         breeds complacency. Complacency   Occasionally change can be massive,
                                         breeds failure. Only the paranoid   and positions once taken for granted
                                         survive.” The latter phrase was   can shift dramatically. Grove calls



                                           Grove’s Five Questions



                                                     Are you
              Do you          Is your old rival    relying on a                           Where would
             think your       no longer the      complementary         Is everyone         you point a
                                                                      talking about
           competition           biggest        company to make      someone new?          gun if you
           has changed?          threat?          your company                              had one?
                                                    attractive?






                                        Only the paranoid survive.
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