Page 66 - Straight Talk On Project Management IV

They fit a rule. You have to guess the rule.

You can suggest your own triples and you get feedback on whether your sequence also fits the rule.
Finally, after collecting enough evidence, you guess what the rule is.

I tried this over Christmas but with my own sequence of 2-4-8 and most folks suggested sequences
like 10-12-14, 18-20-22 and, after being told that these sequences fitted the rule, guessed that the
rule was the two times table. They were told that this wasn’t the rule.

Others put forward sequences like 4-8-16, 3-6-12 and, on being told these fitted, guessed my rule
was ascending numbers that doubled. It wasn’t.

Some then proposed other sets of triples from the two times table and again, were told that these
still fitted the rule, one even became quite vexed that I was “messing with her head”.
One then asked if 3-6-9, and then 8-16-24 fitted the rule too. It did. They wondered if the rule was
any times tables – it isn’t.

Another proffered 10-20-40, 80-82-84 which fitted the rule and then suggested the rule might be
ascending even numbers. Nope!

Finally, one asked if 1-2-3 fitted, was told it did and guessed correctly that, in fact, the rule of the
sequence was simply any ascending numbers.
It’s obvious with hindsight

I was interested that none of my friends asked if 10-9-8 fitted, or 3-2-1. They’d have go a straight
“no” but neither of these fitted the pattern they had already decided was right in their own minds.

In this experiment and in so many other aspects of life, including IT Project Management, a solid
“no” is a much better indicator of the actual truth than a “yes”. Quickly ruling out what doesn’t work
can get you to your intended outcome faster than testing a bunch of theories that you believe fit –
false positives can be fatal to a project.

How often do we look at a failed IT Project, and with the benefit of hindsight, the cause is obvious?
Whether you are conducting an inquiry into why a project failed or making decisions while it’s still
live, the same data is available. T H E S A M E D A T A!!! So, how come we can’t see what’s so
obvious? It’s the same as when we see 2-4-6 and our mind locks onto the two times tables - it’s hard
to shift. This is fine in Wason’s harmless experiment, but an IT Project initiated to deliver great
business change deserves better attention.

There’s a twist in the Wason story!!!

Here’s the interesting twist!
Although my unscientific Christmas experiment proved Wason’s hypothesis, and evidence from
project management post-mortems suggest that confirmation bias exists, Wason’s original
experiment may not have been as conclusive as he claimed.

Like my friends at Christmas, we are led to believe that the participants in Wason’s experiment also
‘tested’ triples that fitted their own theory of what the rule was. Participants, we are told, didn’t try
sequences that might falsify their theory (like 8-3-7) and so were simply trying to confirm their
beliefs.