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DIGGeRs & DeALeRs ReVIeW Comprehensive Supply
Chain Solutions

Mining at heart

of globalisation’s

rise

ationalism and protectionism loom as the biggest threat to the global recovery from
N COVID-19 and Australian mining’s future prosperity, according to Professor Ian
Goldin, the man who predicted a pandemic-induced global crisis seven years ago.

he keynote speaker at Diggers & Deal- problem that does not require China to be in after initial disruption, global movement of
Ters, Goldin – Oxford University Profes- the room.” goods has rebounded.
sor of Globalisation and Development – told If China provides one menace to globali- “Far from supply chains disintegrating
media following his address that Australia sation, the trend for nationalism and protec- goods and services are available which is a
was well-positioned to benefit from growing tionism in western governments is the other. tribute to those engaged in logistics,” Goldin
demand for critical minerals, but international Ironically, the seeds of this anti-globalisation said.
supply chains would be threatened by pro- movement – demonstrated by the election of On the future of commodities, Goldin pre-
tectionist policies. Donald Trump in the US and the Brexit vote dicted several metals to remain strong but
“Demand will continue to outstrip supply of in the UK – came from the last global crisis, hydrocarbons to be phased out as the world
critical minerals,” Goldin said. “And the worst according to Goldin. dealt with the climate crisis.
thing governments could do is become more “The GFC was the source of rising pro- “There needs to be a programme to bring
nationalistic. We already see it in Europe.” tectionism and nationalism, and the pan- an end to the era of fossil fuels,” he said.
Goldin warned that any retreat from glo- demic has reinforced that,” he said. “Why? “Getting to net zero will need carbon cap-
balisation would have a negative impact on Because the GFC led to a rapid increase in ture, etc. as well, but there is no doubt there
Australia’s mining sector. unemployment and poverty and collapse of is a great slowing of demand for coal and oil.”
“Globalisation is the reason the mining trust in the global elite. Iron ore would not suffer the same fall in
industry has been so successful [in recent “When the masters of the universe – demand as the planet couldn’t decarbonise
years],” he said. “We need more globalisa- the central bankers, finance ministers and without steel, while Goldin highlighted lithi-
tion to lift more people out of poverty and CEOs – couldn’t stop the GFC, it led to a um, nickel, copper and rare earths as hav-
provide the capital to ensure economic collapse in trust. It led to Brexit and Trump, ing “tremendously good potential” thanks to
growth.” which wouldn’t have happened if not for the decarbonisation.
With trade and diplomatic tensions be- GFC and the rise of inequality, anger and re- “Mining is linked to the Green New Deal,”
tween China and the West growing, Goldin sentment. he said.
believes Australian mining is in danger of be- “That pushing back on globalisation is a On gold, he stuck his neck out in predict-
ing stuck in the middle. mistake because globalisation is the prob- ing its role as a store of wealth in an un-
“The threat of having to choose sides has lem but also the solution. It has delivered certain world would keep the price around
a dramatic impact for Australia and the future more benefits to more people than anything $US2,000/oz for at least the next three
of mining,” he said. “The current tensions else in history. Globalisation is about trade, years.
between Australia and China will only slow investment, people and the movement of Goldin’s final remarks were just as clear.
Australia’s potential.” ideas.” If Australia is to take advantage of that de-
Goldin said the rise of China to super- The onset of the pandemic was expected mand, it will require a fully vaccinated popu-
power status was one of the largest risks to to lead to deglobalisation but Goldin said the lation.
global development. world had actually witnessed an accelera- “To get through the pandemic requires
“The rise of China and the threat of a new tion of the process. a dramatic acceleration of vaccination,” he
Cold War may be my greatest fear because “Digital/remote connectivity is one aspect said. “Australia and New Zealand strategy
it will slow globalisation’s growth and will of that. We are fortunate the pandemic has [of hard borders and zero COVID] has been
lead to protectionism and nationalism,” he occurred when remote connectivity is pos- an interesting experiment and time will tell,
said. “We can’t stop the next pandemic or sible. There has been five times the digital but you need vaccination as well. Until we
climate change if we are fighting a cold war; flows in the last 12 months,” he said. vaccinate everyone, we will continue to have
we have to work together. There is no global Financial flows have also accelerated and mutations so it is a priority.”

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