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In summary
➔Major growth in NPI in 2019-20, combined with demand collapse has pushed global market
into surplus; surplus likely out to 2024 as Indonesian supply surge continues
➔Nickel use in batteries will be the major growth area for nickel out to 2030 – huge uncertainty
over actual growth rates but risks remains on upside
➔Supply response to meet in incremental demand growth has to come from Indonesia,
currently from NPI, but in future from high-pressure acid leach projects
➔Track record on HPAL creates uncertainty. The Indonesian projects have to work from an
environmental as well as volume and cost perspective.
➔NPI/FeNi conversion to matte/refining could be a source of nickel for batteries, if HPAL
projects are delayed
➔There will always be a place for nickel concentrate projects but that is not the solution to
large scale growth needed
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