Page 683 - ANC20-Proceedings-Presentations-Full

COVID-19 impacts the market Forecast Global GDP growth scenarios, 2012-2023(%)

10.0%

5.0%
Global macro climate
0.0%
• Global GDP growth in the “deep V recovery” scenario this -5.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
year is now assumed to be -3.1% with a 5.8% recovery in -10.0%

2021.
Prolonged recovery Deep V
• Under “prolonged recovery” case global GDP falls by 4.6%

this year followed by a 5.6% recovery in 2021. Primary nickel in stainless demand, 2019-2023 (%)

Stainless 100%

50%
• Roskill expects COVID-19 to result in a 7.8% y-o-y drop in
stainless steel demand, translating into a ~115kt y-o-y 0%

decline in primary nickel use by the stainless steel 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
industry in 2020. Prolonged COVIDforecast COVID forecast pre-COVID forecast

Batteries Short-term impact scenarios on battery capacity (GWh), 2020

• Battery capacity impacted by length of lockdowns 150 4.0

compared to business as usual scenario 100 3.0
GWh capacity 50 2.0 EV sales(,M)

1.0

0 0.0
BaU 2020 2019 1m lockdown 2m lockdown 4m lockdown 6m lockdown

GWh EV sales(Million)