Page 42 - All About History - Issue 11-14

What if…

Germany had

won WWI?

WORLD WAR I, 1914-1918

Written by Jonathan O’Callaghan

What would have happened if Germany had won World Without a German defeat, is there any chance of
STEPHEN BADSEY War I? someone like Hitler still rising to power?
Stephen Badsey It depends on when they win it. If they win a short war in The short answer is yes. Mussolini came to power in Italy and
is a professor
of Conflict 1914, with the Schlieffen Plan [the plan to quickly defeat Italy was on the winning side in World War I. The Treaty of
Studies at the the French first to avoid fighting on two fronts] working, it’s Versailles was [Hitler’s] excuse, no reputable historians believe
University of different than if they win a negotiated victory after a long, that World War II leads inevitably from World War I. The idea
Wolverhampton.
An internationally recognised hard fight at the end of 1916 or early in 1917, which is the that a botched peace treaty in 1919 inevitably leads to World
military historian, he has other possibility. Either way, you get a large German Empire War II is not historically accurate.
written or edited more than
90 books and articles, his dominating central and western Europe. What is likely to
writings have been translated happen is you get a very strong and dominant Germany, What might a victorious German Empire have looked
into five languages and [but one] that is not quite as bad as Hitler’s Germany in two like in practice?
he appears frequently on
television and in other media. respects. One is that it doesn’t have a plan for the genocide Again, it depends on when it happens. At the start of the war
of the Jewish population of Europe – at least we don’t think it in 1914, the Germans have no real concept of any war aims
would have – and it doesn’t have a plan for global domination. except reaching the enemy capital, which had been their
With those two exceptions, you get a very nasty, racist, experience in the Franco-Prussian War from 1870 to 1871,
expansionist state with enough power in terms of economic for example. When that fails in September 1914, they realise
and political power to dominate Europe, which means it can they’re going to need some war aims so they come up with
do something no power had ever been able to do: it can afford something called the ‘Septemberprogramm’. This is a plan for
to have an extremely large and extremely good army, and it a domination of Belgium as a client state, the Netherlands,
can also afford to have an extremely good navy, large enough which is neutral, the annexation of large parts of northern
to defeat the Royal Navy. They don’t actually have to invade France with its industry, an absorption of parts of the Austro-
Britain, although they probably would, but they can just starve Hungarian Empire and the establishment of a German frontier
it into submission. further to the East. All of this would produce a German-
dominated super-state that would reach roughly from Calais to
Would this have led to another war? as far east as Kiev.
If Germany wins World War I, they get into a strong position
[against the rest of Europe] and then there’s almost certainly a Could Germany have won the war with the entrance of
war about ten years later, in which the British are defeated. So the United States?
the British have absolutely no motive for letting this happen. As it happened, the Germans made the conscious decision
In 1914, the British have three things that nobody else on the instead to try to go for another total win by introducing
planet has got: they’ve got the world’s only global empire with unrestricted submarine warfare in January to February 1917 in
massive resources, they’ve got dominant control of the world’s an attempt to starve the British out and that was the principal
financial systems through London and they’ve got the biggest decision that brought the US into the war. Once the US is in
and most powerful navy in the world. So, why should they sit the war as well, it’s difficult for the Germans to come up with
there doing nothing while a country that will almost certainly any kind of win; they make a last attempt with their spring
defeat them in the next war ten years on establishes that offensives after the collapse of Russia, in spring 1918, but these
position [to leapfrog them]? do not succeed.
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