Page 86 - All About History - Issue 70-18

What if…
The Meiji Restoration
had failed?
If Japan’s revolution of 1868 had not panned out,
shogunate may have sided very differently during the World Wars
Written by Jonathan O’Callaghan
[Emperor Meiji, who was in league with the western
INTERVIEWWITH…DRALISTAIRSWALE rebels]. They were met by forces of the Satsuma
Dr Alistair Swale is currently a senior and Chōshū clans, and repulsed over several days. missions being sent from Japan to Europe. So even
lecturer in screen and media studies The shogunate forces were not a match for the
at the University of Waikato, New
Zealand. He is the author of The combined expertise and determination of the new
Political Thought Of Mori Arinori: A players in the game.
Study In Meiji Conservatism and The The most bloody and prolonged fighting
Meiji Restoration: Monarchism, Mass
Communication And Conservative Revolution. happened on the north east of the country, where
the Aizu clan was determined to pursue the
conflict further. But I think if you consider the
What precipitated the overthrow of the degree of what was at stake, it’s remarkable that
260-year-old Tokugawa shogunate in Japan in there was not more loss of life.
favour of the young Emperor Meiji?
The most common point for talking about the Meiji What were some of the major ways the Meiji
Restoration is the arrival of the “black ships” [from Restoration changed the country?
the United States] under Commodore Perry in 1853, Within three years of the Restoration, the clans
when they sailed into Uraga harbour, near Edo were abolished and replaced with the nomenclature
[the former name for Tokyo]. It was a fairly graphic of prefectures. Also you have the beginning of
demonstration of a Western power’s capacity to the breaking down of a traditional caste system.
enter into the inner precinct of Japan without any For centuries the warriors, the samurai, were in a
consequence. Perry said he would come back in a position of authority. As a caste they were at the
year’s time and get a response from the Japanese top of the social order. And it is often said they
in terms of whether they would open the country had the authority to dispatch anyone of an inferior
or not. And when they did come back, the Japanese caste just for a perceived slight. So that’s the second struggled to accept the kind of homogenising of
acquiesced to a point, and opened up some ports thing that really begins to get undone in the wake
to the Americans. of the restoration.
At the time, the Tokugawa shogunate had lost
one of its main reasons for existing, which was Did the Restoration end the Japanese policy
maintaining the policy of isolation. So in this one of seclusion and did this change the country’s
major event you find the bakufu [the Shōgun’s standing with the rest of the world?
officials] exposed as actually not having the I don’t think it changed the notion of isolation
technical wherewithal to repulse the westerners. completely. From 1853 onwards, the shogunate had
And perhaps even worse actually letting them been forced to open ports, and been forced to do
land, and in several years’ time setting up a trade trade deals with various nations. The moment that
agreement with the Americans. From this point, the they did treaties with one nation, other nations
position of the shogunate becomes untenable. claimed the same provisions. And by the time
you get to the mid to late 1860s, the shogunate
Imperial and shogunate forces clashed from
1868-1869. How bloody was the Boshin War?
There were conflicts, but I think it’s actually “If you consider… what was at stake, it’s
remarkable how limited the conflicts were. Probably
one of the most pivotal was just south of the capital, remarkable that there was
when the shogunate sent forces to take a letter to
86
the surviving
itself is developing quite a tight relationship with
the French government, and there are substantial
by 1868, which was the year of the Restoration, the
shogunate navy was in fact relatively modernised.
To say that natural isolation was still going to
be something that you could go back to, I think
that was probably unrealistic and a fait accompli
that was accepted by both the shogunate and the
western clans that toppled them. I don’t think
either would think keeping the Western powers out
was an option.
What would have happened if the Meiji
Restoration had failed?
The single largest legacy of the shogunate
continuing would be that they would be hard
pressed to implement reforms. The transition
from having a patchwork of clans to a unified
nation state where the entire country is under one
government, I think that would have been more
difficult to implement.
The other thing is the shogunate would have
the national populous that happened under the
Restoration government [such as disestablishing
the privileges of the samurai class]. I don’t think
the shogunate would have been able to push that
through, so I don’t think they would have been
able to create the kind of military force that could
project into other parts of Asia quite as effectively.
They could have certainly had geopolitical
conflicts with China, the Korean peninsula, and
conceivably with Russia as well. But it’s really a
moot point just how far they could have succeeded,
not just transforming the military but also the
fabric of the nation.
not more loss of life”