Page 89 - All About History - Issue 70-18

What if…

THE MEIJIRESTORATIONHADFAILED?

“That would have The restored
Japanese
chastened aspirations Emperor Meiji,
in 1888
for military expansion”

antagonism with the English, that [Japan] could have come
quicker to an alignment with the German-speaking nations.
Instead of having a strong English influence, they would have
had a much more Germanic influence, and that would have
interesting implications for World War I. Japan came into the
war on the side of the English, the Allies, but it would be
interesting to conject what Japan’s role in World War I would
have been had it in fact sided with Germany.

How might this have affected Japan’s more substantial
role in World War II?
If they had ended up being strong enough to be taken
seriously as a power in the confrontation with Russia in
the early 20th century, and then struck up an alliance with Prince
Germany in World War I, what that implies is they might Tokugawa
Yoshinobu was
well have been on the losing side. That probably would have
the last shōgun
chastened aspirations for military expansion thereafter, and it to rule Japan
might have led to a greater or earlier desire to remain neutral.
So that could have meant Japan would not have been in the
position it was, in the 1930s, where it had Korea, Manchuria,
this broad web of territories and influence, it would have had
quite a distinct complexion.

Overall, what would a failed Meiji Restoration have
meant for Japan?
The fundamental issue here is that the shogunate’s premise
of existing and structure made it inherently weak and
vulnerable. It’s highly debatable how long they could have
held that position unreconstructed. Every compromise they
made in terms of the structure of the government and the
introduction of new reforms would have made it look more
self-contradictory and weak, and ripe for further attack.

O The shogunate O Western countries start O Japan shops around O Russia finds itself in O Japan’s role in World O A more timid Japan O Japan decides to
maintains control to move in for an ally the firing line War I emerges keep its distance
Sticking to its policy of Seeing the shogunate Following the French The Japanese still World War I breaks out, Following a chastening As World War II
seclusion, the shogunate as weak and vulnerable, losses in the Franco- emerge victorious, but rather than siding defeat in World War I, develops, Japan
is able to placate the Western powers are Prussian war, Japan goes propelling themselves with the Allies in the real Japan never embarks on signifies its intention
samurai, while also emboldened to get more to Germany for military onto the international timeline, Japan decides the confident military to remain neutral.
keeping the clans quiet. involved in Japan. assistance. stage as a formidable to side with Germany. operations it does in the It does not enter an
1866 1869 1870 power. 1904 1914 real world. 1930 Axis alliance. 1939

O The country begins O Japan sets sail for the US O On the brink of war O The beginning of O The clans on the attack O The Meiji Restoration
to split Nearly 80 shogunate li Naosuke, the Shōgun’s the end Skirmishes break out across in Japan begins
The appeasement of officials travel to second in command, is killed Having relinquished Japan between the clans, In November 1867, the
the Americans angers Washington DC to ratify by samurai opposed to the their influence in Japan the shogunate, and western Shōgun (Yoshinobu)
loyalists. Some are the Treaty of Amity and opening of the country. to Great Britain, the forces. The shogunate can resigns. In January
not happy about the Commerce as the country The clans make moves to US sinks two Chōshū no longer contain or control 1868, the Meiji
presence of foreigners takes a step away from remove the shogunate warships after being clans like the Chōshū and Restoration formally
in Japan. 1858 isolationism. 1860 from power. March 1860 attacked. July 1863 Satsuma. 1865 begins. 1867 to 1868

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