Page 88 - All About History - Issue 70-18

What if…

Would the shogunate have been able to keep control?
I think it would be tenuous. It would have emboldened the
Western powers to get more involved. Even if the shogunate
managed to hold on, I think it would mean that Japan would
not have been so successful at modernisation.

To what extent did the Restoration cause Japan to
modernise and would the shogunate have resisted this?
Both the shogunate and the Restoration forces recognised the
need to modernise the military hardware. The question was
how far you take some of these reforms.
There is the famous phrase, ‘wakon-yōsai’, that means
‘Japanese spirit, Western learning’. That seems to have
been implemented in a pragmatic way throughout the early
stages of the Restoration. Especially in the first 10 years
following Restoration, there’s a very complex process of
negotiation, almost bit by bit, where people are trying to sort
out how far you can adopt certain things from Western culture
and still stay Japanese.
I think there is a realisation after time that you could still
cut your hair, wear Western clothes, and nonetheless pursue
the original aims of preserving the integrity of the country.

Could Japan still have won the 1904 Russo-Japanese
war without Restoration’s widespread modernisation?
Under the [shogunate], would they have been able to develop
the military prowess to trouble the Russians? It’s possible.
Russia was a fairly powerless state in terms of international
situation and governance, and the shogunate did already
have a record for developing a fairly strong naval presence.
The more serious question that plays further along is what
would have happened to Japanese relations with other
Western powers. The Satsuma clan had a relationship with
England that was very strong and certainly filtered into the
development of the navy and commerce.
The French influence probably would have stayed with the
shogunate, but of course there was the Franco-Prussian War in Samurai from the Chōshū clan in western Japan
consider battle plans during the Boshin War
the early 1870s. It probably would have meant, because of their

How would it O Perry leaves Japan O Loyalists struggle to gain O The clans fail to rise up
The shogunate manages
empty-handed
support
to keep the clans at bay,
With no anti-foreigner
Commodore Perry returns
be di erent? but is rebuffed by the sentimentality in the sending expeditions to tame
shogunate. He sails back to
country after the ports are
the Chōshū clan and others,
kept closed, the loyalists
the US, unable to strike a
trade agreement. aren’t able to gain support and quelling any chance of
an uprising or a Restoration
February 1854 in the country. 1857 in the country. 1862
Alternate timeline

Realtimeline
O A storm brews on O The arrival of
the horizon the black ships
The Dutch warn the Commodore Perry arrives at the port of
ruling shogunate in Uraga, at the entrance of Tokyo Bay, demanding
Japan that American that the shogunate opens up ports for the US to O The end of national O Other countries want in O The American presence
Commodore begin trade negotiations. His fleet was known as seclusion on the deal grows in Japan
Matthew C Perry the “black ships”, with the Japanese seeing just Commodore Perry returns, First Great Britain in The shogunate agrees to
will soon arrive to how far behind their navy and technology lagged and in March the Treaty of October 1854, then Russia open more ports to the
demand that the compared to the rest of the world.. He says he will Kanagawa is signed opening in February 1855 and Americans, under pressure
country’s ports are return in 1854, leaving Japan to decide whether up the ports of Hakodate and Holland in November 1855, from from the US Consul who
opened to the US they will abandon their policy of national seclusion Shimoda to the Americans. all sign deals to get a piece had arrived in Shimoda two
for trading. 1852 and embrace the rest of the world. July 1853 February 1854 of the pie. October 1854 years earlier. 1858

88