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Copper increasing to 2023...

ICSG’s assessment of capacity trends at operating, projected mines and plants
based on information received from its member countries

efore the impact of the coronavirus ing onstream (Cobre de Panama being 2020, the ICSG indicates that the situa-
Bon commodity prices can be fully un- the exception), while mines operated at tion is changing.
derstood, immediate forecasts have been an average 85% capacity when strikes, “The pipeline of projects is improving
bearish for copper. weather conditions and other factors im- and should result in an average annual
At the time of print, copper was trading pacted the running of projects. growth rate of about 4.5% per year from
at about $US5,732/t. The usually bustling Cobre de Panama, First Quantum Min- 2020-2023, with a higher growth of 6% in
streets in China remained scarce and its erals Ltd’s new mine in Panama achieved 2023 when major projects are starting or
manufacturing sector scaled down, but commercial production in September – ramping up,” ICSG stated.
the spread of the virus appeared to be one month earlier than anticipated – and “Concentrates will represent around
slowing by late February. was on track to record 140,000-175,000t 90% of the total growth in world mine ca-
Prior to the virus outbreak, the Lisbon- copper production in 2019. pacity over the period 2020-2023.”
based International Copper Study Group A project comprising eight mills, Cobre Chinese investment in projects and
(ICSG) released its biannual Directory de Panama is expected to hit 85 mtpa continued support for projects in African
of Copper Mines and Plants, which in- this year (72 mtpa in 2019) and when the and South American jurisdictions will
cludes details of production capabil- mine is fully ramped C1 costs in 2022 drive growth in the copper market in the
ity and capacity of the world’s largest are estimated to be $US1.20/lb (AISC next few years, while the ICSG reports
copper mines with output around the $US1.50/lb). that more mines are being evaluated to
100,000 tpa mark. Furthermore, throughput by 2023 is complement expected future demand.
Based on such projects, copper mine scheduled to tip 100 mtpa and copper In addition to production growth, cop-
capacity is expected to grow by about production hit 350,000 tpa at the mine, per refinery capacity is anticipated to
4.5% pa from 2020-2023, exceeding the which currently has a mine life of 36 grow at an average of 2.3% pa (2020-
average of 1% growth experienced dur- years. 2023) and smelter capacity 3.3% during
ing 2017-2019. While there had been a dearth of new the same timeframe.
The period 2017-2019 was low be- projects like Cobre de Panama enter-
cause of the lack of major mines com- ing the copper supply stream preceding

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