Page 30 - ATR 5 2020 digital

future. The biggest of these is the elec- for work. A significant
tion. President Trump uses unpredict- number of people were
ability as a cornerstone of his leadership making more by staying
style, and the changes a Biden victory home than they did when
might bring are equally difficult to actively working. Recent
predict, so the road ahead is foggy attempts to pass another
regardless of who wins. Questions about stimulus bill failed in
additional stimulus money and other Congress, however, and
strategies for economic recovery will be many states are running
decided by a Congress that could also out of the federal money
have a new look after the election. provided for extra unem-
The challenges presented by these ployment benefits. This
future unknowns add to challenges may result in more people
already facing the trucking industry: returning to work, but it’s
driver shortages and increased operating not clear they’ll choose to
costs. And the likelihood of more regu- apply for trucking jobs.
lations feels almost like a given. Atkins points out,
The pandemic has made it even “Folks would rather drive
harder to find drivers. Atkins lists sev- a nail than drive a truck
eral factors contributing to the driver right now.”
shortage. The first is early retirement. The housing and
With a median age of 47, truck driv- construction industry, a
ers tend to be older. Those who were surprising factor in the
close to retirement may have taken the trucking rebound, shares
onset of the pandemic as their exit cue. a labor pool with the
Failed drug tests, or driving violations trucking industry. Why
reduce the potential driver population leave home and fight traf-
even more. The Federal Motor Carrier fic for relatively low pay,
Safety Administration’s Drug & Alcohol when construction jobs can be found THE FORECAST
Clearinghouse has flagged roughly closer to home. The hourly pay for Even with all the uncertainties
28,000 drivers. truck drivers hasn’t kept pace with the surrounding the future, Atkins is rea-
Replacing drivers, regardless of the national average over the past twenty sonably confident in predicting rate
reason they’ve left, has been more chal- years. increases and driver pay increases. “I
lenging as many state agencies and driv- Increasing costs to run trucks and think we will see driver wage increases
er training schools have been operating fleets are one reason truckers aren’t in 2021,” he says. “The magnitude is
with reduced hours and staff. Getting seeing bigger paychecks. These costs to still to be determined, but driver wages
a commercial driver’s license (CDL) carriers aren’t being passed along to will be going up in 2021 because it’s
or the training necessary for a permit the shippers or consumers, Atkins says. very, very difficult to find a driver.”
has become more time consuming and He gives the example of rising costs of Those may be the silver linings.
cumbersome. According to Atkins data, insurance. Beyond 2021, it’s likely technology
roughly 100,000 fewer CDLs have been “Insurance rates continue to be a innovations — more easily adopted by
issued this year, as compared to this challenge. It’s been a challenge for the large carriers — will drive rates per mile
same time last year. Low wages make it last couple of years and that’s not going down, making it difficult for small
hard to attract professional truck driv- away. It’s only going to get worse. That’s and midsize fleets to compete. Some of
ers, even when unemployment is high. a major problem for small and midsize those innovations have already arrived.
Ironically, some of the same factors carriers.” Automating back office operations, like
keeping some truckers on the road may Even larger fleets that are more invoicing and payroll, is becoming more
also be contributing to the lack avail- easily able to absorb inflated insurance common, as is geo-fencing. Electric big
able drivers. Federal stimulus money premiums are having difficulty keep- rigs and autonomous trucks are closer
and boosts to unemployment checks ing up. Since 2010, the cost per loaded to becoming reality, further jeopardiz-
have encouraged many consumers to mile (excluding fuel) has risen $0.59 ing smaller fleets.
make truckloads of purchases, and whereas revenue has only increased Atkins response? Consolidation.
those same checks have disincentivized $0.57. Over time, even the biggest in the While the outlaw image of truck-
some potential drivers from looking industry will suffer if this continues. ers popularized by mainstream media

30 Issue 5 2020 | ARKANSAS TRUCKING REPORT