Page 108 - Towards_a_New_Malaysia_The_2018_Election_and_Its_6146371_(z-lib.org)

Politics of Reform and the Triumph of Pakatan Harapan 93

Selangor is an exemplar of this trend, as of course is Penang, albeit sui generis
because of its Chinese demographic. e latecomers are Johor, Negri Sembilan,
and Malacca, with Johor largely assuming the early Selangor template of 2008.
In the east-coast states of Kelantan and Terengganu and in signi cant areas of
Kedah and Perak, PAS bene ted from three-way Malay vote-splitting. PAS’s
strength—which, I argue, is highly path-dependent—shows Kelantan and
Terengganu to be signi cantly di erent from west-coast states. e situation
in East Malaysia is exempli ed by the emergence of Warisan, the outcome of
a major rupture of UMNO hegemony that enhanced the unique character of
Sabah politics.

West-coast Patterns: Selangor, Johor, and Kedah

In this section I will examine speci c factors leading to the BN’s loss in
west-coast peninsular states by examining the voting patterns and outcomes
particularly of three-cornered contests in three representative states, Selangor,
Johor, and Kedah. Path analysis suggests that PKR bene ted greatly from
increasing returns in Selangor because its two terms of good governance
enhanced institutional strength and political legitimacy despite elite tussles
and transitions. In Johor, BN’s earlier path-dependent success, albeit eroded
after 2008, was further greatly damaged by Najib’s toxic image and the sacking
of the state’s own Muhyidddin Yassin; in Kedah, PAS was able to ride on its
role as a champion of Islamic polices—even though it had lost state control in
2013—to retain strong support in this Muslim-belt state.
In Selangor, to the surprise of many, the nal tally of the 56-seat contest saw
the following result: PKR 28 seats, DAP 13, Amanah 5, Bersatu 5, UMNO 4,
and PAS 1. Because of the Election Commission’s (EC) redelineation exercise
and PAS’s exit from PR, various analysts had suggested that PH would either
lose the state or drastically decline in strength. e independent survey-research
company, Politweet, which undertook a study of the gerrymandering of seats,
observed that DAP-held seats had grown in size by 26 per cent (with a 77.4
per cent increase in non-Malays in those seats); that the shift of Malay voters
to PKR-held seats resulted in three of those seats’ becoming Malay-majority;
that PAS-held seats were reduced in size by 17 per cent; and that BN-held seats
were reduced in size by 5 per cent. All these measures were aimed at helping
BN win seats. 14
Analysis of the election results o ers the following observations and
conclusions: rst, the redelineation exercise had little e ect because of the
comprehensive vote swing; second, Menteri Besar Azmin Ali’s popularity and

This content downloaded from 139.80.253.0 on Fri, 06 Nov 2020 04:22:05 UTC
All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms