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94 Johan Saravanamuttu

e ectiveness in the state, due to a clutch of welfare-oriented populist policies,
reassured voters after the removal of former Menteri Besar Khalid Ibrahim;
third, PKR institutions, policies, and programmes enhanced performance
legitimacy; and, nally, UMNO showed poor leadership, had a poor past
record, and had no apparent leader to take over the state. us, that PKR
prevailed in Selangor can be said to have been path-dependent.
Chart 5.4 shows the impact of three-cornered contests among PH (PKR
and Amanah), BN (mainly UMNO), and PAS. About 70 per cent of the PH
victors received half or more of the popular votes. In three-cornered ghts in
the state, PAS was likely to have eroded BN’s voter-support base, such that
neither party was able to achieve 50 per cent voter support in any seat.
Chart 5.5 shows how the three-way Malay vote split bene ted PH and
eroded UMNO support, while in icting the largest hit on PAS in Malay-
majority seats. e outcomes in these two state constituencies show that
UMNO could still win those seats with a high percentage of Malay voters,
such as Sabak Bernam. However, that PAS eroded UMNO support probably
helped PH in Sungai Besar. e contest in the large Chinese-majority seat of
Seri Kembangan in Chart 5.6 shows the hopelessness of the MCA’s situation.
e extraordinary outcome in Johor is underlined by the fact that it was
the birthplace and bastion of UMNO and boasted hitherto uninterrupted BN
success. PH’s victory was a major rupture along the historic path of BN state
control, launching the coalition onto a phase of reformist politics in this state.
UMNO’s collapse saw an unprecedented swing of voters to PH. UMNO won
only 17 seats, MIC 2, and PAS 1. e MCA was wiped out in a state in
which they had previously provided the most signi cant Chinese presence to
BN. In large part, this comprehensive defeat was due to the sacking of Johor
leader and former deputy president Muhyiddin Yassin over his questioning
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of 1MDB, plus the fact that Najib’s name had become toxic in the state.
Mahathir and the appeal of Bersatu no doubt contributed to UMNO’s losses,
as did the FGV scandals and woes of FELDA settlers.
UMNO’s humiliation was symbolized by UMNO veteran Shahrir Samad’s
defeat in the Johor Baru parliamentary seat and the defeat of incumbent
Menteri Besar Khalid Nordin in both his state and parliamentary seats. at
Malaysian voters living in Singapore, many of whom voted in Johor, did not
nd it so di cult as voters coming from farther a eld to vote on a Wednesday
may have been another factor contributing to the anti-BN vote swing. My
hypothesis is that Johor has basically adopted the Selangor template of PH
victories in mixed seats, although PH also won seats with middling Malay
majorities. In contrast to Selangor, PAS strength is even more minimal in this
state. is outcome is evident in Chart 5.7.

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