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496  n  STRUCTURAl eQUATIOn mODelIng



           lagged paths from three or more time points.   on the inclusion of omitted paths (causal or
           The path from latent variable A at Time 1 to   correlational). Any path that is omitted speci-
   S       latent variable B at Time 2 can be set to equal   fies that there is no relationship, implying a
           the path from latent variable A at Time 2 to   parameter  of  zero;  thus,  analysis  programs
           latent  variable  B  at  Time  3.  equality  con-  constrain these paths to be zero. After esti-
           strains also are used to compare models for   mating the specified model, most programs
           two or more different groups. For example,   provide a numerical estimate of the “strain”
           to compare the models of effects of maternal   experienced by fixing parameters to zero or
           employment on preterm and full-term child   improvement  in  fit  that  would  result  from
           outcomes, paths in the preterm model can be   freeing  the  parameters  (allowing  them  to
           constrained to be equal to the corresponding   vary). Suggested paths must be theoretically
           paths in the full-term model.            defensible before adding them to the respeci-
              Data  requirements  for  Sem  are  simi-  fied model.
           lar to those for factor analysis and multiple   Because  model  respecification  is  based
           regression in level of measurement but not   on the data at hand in light of theoretical evi-
           sample  size.  exogenous  variables  can  have   dence and those data are repeatedly tested,
           indicators  that  are  measured  as  interval,   the  significance  level  of  the  χ    is  actually
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           near interval, or categorical (dummy-, effect-,   higher  than  what  the  program  indicates.
           or  orthogonally  coded)  levels,  but  endog-  Thus,  other  criteria  are  necessary  to  evalu-
           enous  variables  must  have  indicators  that   ate the adequacy of the final model. First is
           are measured at the interval or near-interval   the  theoretical  appropriateness  of  the  final
           level. The rule of thumb regarding the num-  model.  Comparison  of  the  original  model
           ber of cases needed for Sem, 5 to 10 cases per   with the final model will indicate how much
           parameter to be estimated, suggests consid-  “trimming”  has  taken  place.  In  addition,
           erably  larger  samples  than  usually  needed   the  values  and  signs  of  the  parameters  are
           for multiple regression; thus, samples of 100   evaluated.  The  signs  (positive  or  negative)
           for a very modest model to 500 or more for   of the parameters should be in the expected
           more  complex  models  are  often  required.   direction. parameters on the paths between
           Despite the advantages of Sem, these larger   the latent variable and its indicators should
           samples  can  result  in  complex  and  costly   be >.50 but <1.0 in a standardized solution.
           studies.                                 The  lower  the  unexplained  variance  of  the
              Sem is generally a multistage procedure.   endogenous  variables,  the  better  the  model
           First,  the  Sem  implied  by  the  theoretical   performed  in  explaining  those  endogenous
           model is tested and the fit of the model to the   variables (similar to the 1–R  value in mul-
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           observed data is evaluated. A nonsignificant   tiple regression). Results that are consistent
           χ    indicates  acceptable  fit,  but  this  is  diffi-  with a priori expectations and findings from
            2
           cult to obtain because the χ   value is heavily   previous research increase one’s confidence
                                  2
           influenced (increased) by larger sample sizes.   in the model.
           Thus, most analytic programs provide other   In summary, Sem is a powerful and flex-
           measures of fit. A well-fitting model is nec-  ible analysis technique for testing models of
           essary before the parameter estimates can be   cause,  for  investigating  specific  cause-and-
           evaluated and interpreted.               effect  relationships,  and  for  exploring  the
              In  most  cases,  the  original  theoretical   hypothesized process by which specific out-
           model does not fit the data well, and modi-  comes  are  produced.  With  Sem  programs,
           fications must be made to the model in order   the  researcher  has  greater  control  over  the
           to obtain a well-fitting model. Although dele-  analyses  than  with  other  factor  analysis
           tion of nonsignificant paths (based on t val-  and  multiple  regression  programs.  model
           ues) is possible, modifications generally focus   respecification  is  usually  necessary,  but  the
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