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CLAT 2021 21 Year Experienced Team

Developing Resilience To Cyclones: Changing Patterns And

Increasing Risk

Cyclone Nivar: It was a very severe cylonic storm which affected Tamil Nadu,
Andhra Pradesh and Puducherry. While the loss of life was very less compared to
the large-size weather system, property and agriculture were affected. Larger
damage was averted due to timely warning by India Meteorological Department
(IMD) and proactiveness, despite COVID-19 induced fatigue.

Cyclone Gati: It was also a very severe cyclonic storm and the strongest cyclone
recorded in Somalia. Locust: It also has the potential to create favourable
conditions for breeding of locusts in Somalia

Changing patterns of cyclones in India:
Most prone months: Cyclones occur in the months of May-June (pre-monsoon) and October-November
(postmonsoon), with a primary peak in November and secondary peak in May.
Most prone areas: While the entire 8000 km coastline of India is vulnerable to cyclones, the east coast is
more prone to cyclones compared to the west coast and the entire coastline is exposed to nearly 10% of the
cyclones worldwide.
Increasing frequency: The intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean has been rising
due to more availability of moisture on account of climate-change induced ocean warming.

Changes over Bay of Bengal: Cyclones have increased in frequency in this region in the peak months of
November and May. However, for the months of June and September, the frequency has decreased. Further,
in the warm ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) phase, the frequency of cyclones in May and November is
found to have decreased. Cyclone Gati, Cyclone Nivar wreaked environmental, economic and social havoc in
their path.
Changes over Arabian Sea: There is no significant change in cyclone trend in this region, although climate
scientists predict the increase in number of cyclones and their intensity due to warmer Arabian sea.

Why cyclones skipped October 2020?
Weak La Nina conditions along equatorial Pacific Ocean has been present since August this year. Further, the
east-moving Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) which was in favourable phase, intensified the low-pressure
systems into a deep depression. There was a vertical wind shear between high and low atmospheric levels in
September, which prevented the low-pressure systems and deep depression from strengthening into a
cyclone.

Cyclones not occurring in October is not new. On 42 occasions between 1891-2020, no cyclones were formed
in October, with the longest absence in 1950-54 in the last 130 years.
Prediction by IMD: The IMD has been getting better at forecasting slow-moving, linear tropical cyclones in
the Bay of Bengal, with multiple satellites providing real-time cyclone data. However, the erratic nature of
cyclones is also on the rise. National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) teams equipped with disaster
management equipment gets proactively deployed for response and relief measures.
India's Organisational structure to combat cyclones:
IMD, established in 1875 is the National Meteorological Service of the country and the principal government
agency mandated to observe, provide forecast, warnings, statistics and conduct research regarding severe
weather phenomenon.

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