Page 20 - Forbes India (December 2015)

thought leaders

rICh Karlgaard // INNoVatIoN rules

IS AMERICA IN DECLINE?

alfred kroeber’s 1944 book, too short a column! But let’s say this is
Configurations of Culture Growth, is a mixed. Contrast that with the 100-year
masterpiece in the field of anthropology. period in the US from 1865 to 1965, when
He was a 68-year-old professor at the arts and sciences were rapidly advancing.
University of California in Berkeley when
his 882-page book came out. Youth favours The bright spot
mathematicians and mobile phone app How about American companies? Here at
writers but not anthropologists. They last is some good news: They are advancing
have no way of bypassing the decades of in the world. Trump says America
reading and research and deep synthesis no longer wins. But America’s tech
it takes to become good in their field. juggernauts—Apple, Google, Facebook,
And so what did the great Kroeber Amazon and Microsoft—are so powerful
conclude after all his work? First, that Europe wants to block them or break
that individual geniuses in the arts and sciences tend them up. By market cap, as of late October, the US is home
to rise from advancing cultures, not declining ones. to the top ten companies in the world (Apple, Google,
The peak period of a culture is signalled by a spike Microsoft, Exxon, Berkshire Hathaway, General Electric,
in genius contributors in the sciences and the arts. Facebook, Amazon, Wells Fargo and Johnson & Johnson).
(We could add technology.) The best Greek tragedies Five of these are tech companies with strong momentum.
and comedies were written within a 100-year period The evolutionary pace of core technology is
when ancient Greece was at its peak. The peak in slowing a bit. The half-century run of Moore’s
Germany’s music culture lasted less than 200 years. Law is now being challenged by the cost of circuits
Of longer duration was England’s peak creative period manufactured on the atomic scale. We have no flying
in science and technology, which ran from about 1680 cars, supersonic airplanes or hyperloops—yet. Lack
to 1910. The decline in genius contributors after that of scientific progress is blunting technology at the
foreshadowed England’s decline as a global superpower. leading edge. Still, there’s so much catch-up work to
Second, that cultures advance when ethics and values be done, resulting in trillion-dollar opportunities, that
become understood and are deeply embraced and when we should merrily dive in. Energy, transportation,
competence is tested through competition. Cultures agriculture and health care are being transformed
decline when the opposite happens. Most cultures by digital technology. American entrepreneurs and
don’t fall by being conquered, not at first. They wither firms are in a great position to profit from this.
from an erosion of values, insular thinking and a lack Also in ascent are the world’s “supercities”, a trend
of competition. Not being robust from within or tested that ruffles nativists in every country. New York, Los
from without, cultures become weak without knowing Angeles and San Francisco-Silicon Valley increasingly
it. Or sensing they might be rotting, they cling to comic see themselves as islands in a global economy, less tied
book values, centralised authority and thicker walls of to the US. Are we living in a period of “peak nation”?
protective insularity as a means of stopping the decline. But for every rise, there’s a backlash. In Malaysia,
Using Professor Kroeber’s analysis, would you say the native Malays, many of whom haven’t kept pace
US is advancing or declining? Well, successive American with immigrants from China, India and Europe, are
presidents have sought to consolidate power. Not a good called the bhumiputra—sons of the soil. Ponder this:
sign. The two presidential candidates leading in the polls Much of Malaysia’s majority population holds victim
as of mid-October, [Hillary] Clinton and [Donald] Trump, status and enjoys affirmative-action benefits—and
have turned their backs on trade policies that freely not for being the minority but for not keeping up.
engage with the world. Another bad sign (have we lost Every country today has its bhumiputra. In the US,
our competitive confidence?). How’s the country doing they look to Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, respond thomas KuhleNbeCK for forbes
on the ethics and values front? Sheesh—do we want to to comic book values and demand more insularity.
go there? Clinton and Trump should avert their eyes. Their problems and pain are real. But Trump and
Conclusion: The American political system is in decline. Sanders offer solutions that will hasten our decline.
How about in the arts and sciences? Too long a topic, Rich Karlgaard is the publisher at Forbes

20 | FORBES INDIA DECEMBER 11, 2015