Page 280 - (DK) The Business Book
P. 280
278
TRYING TO PREDICT THE
FUTURE IS LIKE DRIVING
WITH NO LIGHTS LOOKING
OUT OF THE BACK WINDOW
FORECASTING
IN CONTEXT
Predicting the performance of a product
FOCUS in the market relies on…
Forecasting
KEY DATES
1939 A quantitative method of
forecasting is developed, using
past sales correlation.
…simulations
…qualitative
1959 Project RAND, a think …quantitative of the effect
analysis of
tank assembled by the US analysis of of external
behavior in the
Air Force, creates the Delphi sales data. factors
market.
technique for forecasting on sales.
using expert opinions.
1970 British mathematicians
George Box and Gwilym
Jenkins develop a
sophisticated model for However, forecasting can never take
picking out trends from unforeseen events into account.
historical data.
1980s Computerized
forecasting models appear,
such as INFOREM and E3. orecasting sales is one of a Marketers first suggested the idea
marketer’s most important of using economic models to
2003 Sunil Chopra and Peter
F roles. Other management forecast regional sales in the 1930s,
Meindel at Northwestern
departments in a company will and from the 1950s onward the idea
University, IL, emphasize the
make critical decisions that affect of quantitative and qualitative
link between accurate the entire organization, based on approaches emerged. Qualitative
forecasting and supply-chain the information that the marketer forecasting relies on the expertise
management. provides about the anticipated of managerial staff and their
performance of a company’s acquired knowledge about market
products in the marketplace. reactions. Quantitative forecasting
