Page 17 - ANC20-Proceedings-Presentations-Full

Summary of outlook – from deficit to surplus

`000t Ni 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
Total SS production 53288 50788 54026 56269 58635 60956 63307 ➔Deficit this year of 138kt and 70kt in
% Change 2.0% -4.7% 6.4% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9%
Primary nickel consumption 2439 2303 2492 2588 2724 2890 3063 2021, despite strong demand
% Change 2.3% -5.6% 8.2% 3.8% 5.2% 6.1% 6.0%
recovery
Nickel Supply 2401 2441 2562 2655 2796 2906 3046
% Change 9.7% 1.7% 4.9% 3.6% 5.3% 4.0% 4.8%
(of which NPI) (945) (1,060) (1,160) (1,251) (1,331) (1,366) (1,455) ➔Revisions upwards in Indonesian
supply are pushing the market in to
World Market Balance -38 138 70 67 72 16 -17
continuous surplus out to 2024
Estimated total stocks 506 644 714 781 853 869 852
Weeks' world demand 10.8 14.5 14.9 15.7 16.3 15.6 14.5
LME Cash Price ($/t) 13908 13263 13750 14000 15000 15500 16000 ➔Included in the numbers is 140ktpa
of Indonesian HPAL production by
Projected global balance now and late-2019
2025, which will feed into NiSO4
150 138
output in Indonesia and China
100
70 67 72
50 ➔We could see significant closures of
'ooot Ni 16
0 ferronickel capacity as NPI floods
-17 the market
-24
-50 -41 -39
-60 -60
-80
-100
2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
Previous (Dec-19) Latest (July-20)
Source: INSG, Company reports, Macquarie Commodities Strategy, October 2020
PAGE 16