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Virtually all growth in supply from nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia and from
nickel ore from Indonesia (domestic plus exports)
'000t Ni World primary nickel production growth ➔The role of NPI has been dominant
300 in recent years
250 21
4 ➔NPI fell in 2014/15 after previous
200
Indonesian nickel ore ban; this time,
150 109 51
2 76
232
100 28 67 208 61 growth in Indonesian NPI offsets
0
50 62 95 100 126 85 114 Chinese fall in 2020 and 2021
62 76 80
25
0 -10
-20 -35 -25
-55 -50 ➔For 2020 onwards, we have included
-50 -80 -54 -92
-132 our disruption allowance in Ex-NPI
-100
-76
-150 ➔Significant cuts in non-NPI
-200 production in 2020, partly due to
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
Covid and partly due to market
Indonesian NPI Chinese NPI Non-NPI world
Source: Company data, INSG, Macquarie Commodities Strategy, October 2020
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