Page 47 - Georgetown Retail Merchandising Plan 11.7.16 - FINAL

Appendix B: Single Family Demand

SINGLE FAMILY
Estimated Annual Demand Potential For Purchase Residential
Based on 2015 - 2020 County Demographic Trends
Catalyst analyzed demand potential for single family housing in the Georgetown PTA based on county
less than $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000
$500,000
demographic trends. Presently there are 180,875 total households and an average household growth of Home Value $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $300,000 $400,000 and above
$500,000
$400,000
about 6,000 per year. The propensity for residents to own is high (above 87%) when house values top Qualifying Income less than $40,000 $65,000 $90,000 $110,000 $125,000 $150,000 more than
$200,000. Catalyst determined there is annual potential for 2,943 new single family units. $40,000 $65,000 $90,000 $110,000 $125,000 $150,000 $200,000 200,000 Total
2016 Total Households 1 180,875
2021 Total Households 1 210,849
Avg. Annual Household Growth 5,995
Poten4al Annual Demand for Single-Family Residen4al New Household Growth
By Qualifying Income Levels Total Annual New Households 1 5,995 5,995 5,995 5,995 5,995 5,995 5,995 5,995 5,995
23%
19%
6%
92%
6%
% Income Qualified
16%
7%
10%
5%
# Income Qualified 1,379 1,139 959 599 300 420 360 360 5,515
700
660 Owner Propensity 43% 62% 67% 93% 90% 87% 93% 94% 69%
631 Qualified New Households 593 706 643 558 270 365 335 338 3,807
600 Existing Owner Household
Total Households 1 180,875 180,875 180,875 180,875 180,875 180,875 180,875 180,875 180,875
% Income Qualified 2 23% 19% 16% 10% 5% 7% 6% 6% 92%
Owner Propensity 2 43% 62% 67% 93% 90% 87% 93% 94% 64%
500 479 Total Owner Households 17,889 21,307 19,390 16,821 8,139 11,015 10,093 10,201 114,856
Annual Turnover Rate 2 10% 8% 4% 10% 13% 9% 12% 19% 10%
435 Qualified Owners in Turnover 1789 1705 776 1682 1058 991 1211 1938 11150
Estimated % Rent vs. Purchase 3 18% 28% 42% 51% 65% 95% 78% 84% 55%
400 Estimated Owners in Turnover that Rent 322 477 326 858 688 942 945 1,628 6,185
Units 301 Existing Renter Households
1
300 Total Households 2 180,875 180,875 180,875 180,875 180,875 180,875 180,875 180,875 180,875
16%
23%
19%
10%
6%
92%
6%
5%
7%
% Income Qualified
Renter Propensity 2 56% 37% 32% 17% 10% 12% 7% 5% 29%
Total Renter Households 23,297 12,716 9,261 3,075 904 1,519 760 543 52,074
Annual Turnover Rate 2 42% 40% 35% 54% 29% 55% 28% 40% 41%
200 Qualified Renters in Turnover 9,785 5,086 3,241 1,660 262 836 213 217 21,300
149 152 3
136 Estimated % Rent vs. Purchase 9% 26% 40% 47% 57% 67% 58% 60% 25%
Estimated Renters in Turnover that Rent 881 1,322 1,297 780 149 560 123 130 5,243
100
Income Qualified Households
Total Potential Demand 1,795 2,506 2,265 2,196 1,107 1,867 1,403 2,096 15,235
Percent New Renters 3 82% 81% 86% 61% 38% 50% 33% 22% 59%
0 Total Potential Demand for New Units 1,474 2,029 1,939 1,338 419 925 458 468 9,050
$40,000 $65,000 $90,000 $110,000 $125,000 $150,000 $200,000 200,000
City Capture Rate 3,4 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33%
less than $40,000 $65,000 $90,000 $110,000 $125,000 $150,000 more than Total Potential New Singlefamily Demand 479 660 631 435 136 301 149 152 2,943
Qualifying Income 1. ESRI
2. US Census American Community Survey
3. US Census American Housing Survey
4. US Census Building Permits Survey
Source: Catalyst
Georgetown Retail Merchandising Plan 2016 47