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POLITICS April 13-18 2022 Weekly Digest 14

Dealing in numbers – A critique of voting figures in Manicaland Province

ALEX MAGAISA
date got 6511 votes in the parliamentary race, while ly voted in the parliamentary and presidential rac-
n the last installment of the ZANU PF candidate narrowly won Mnangagwa is credited with 18999 votes in the es. While there are bound to be some differences,
BSR, we looked at the elec- the parliamentary race with 11913 presidential race. Parallel to this, while the MDC Al- they must be within reasonable limits. The differ-
tion results from Mashona- votes against the MDC Alliance’s liance candidate got 3962 votes in the parliamen- ences in Mutare North fall outside the boundary of
land West province and the candidate who got 11635 votes. tary race, Chamisa is credited with 12014 votes in what might reasonably be expected. The big ques-
I lessons that could be drawn This happened because some of the presidential race. The difference in both cases is tion is how many more Mutare North scenarios are
from them. This installment fo- the opposition votes went to an both extraordinary and exceptional. there across the country?
cuses on Manicaland province. MDC-T candidate who took 1060 In total, according to ZEC’s official figures, the Mind the Gap
We will observe that there are votes. A combined effort by the number of people who voted in the parliamenta- Although both Mnangagwa and ZANU PF won
similar themes. At the end of this opposition (12,695) would have ry race in Mutare North is 14063 whereas the to- most of the constituencies in Manicaland in both
exercise, after examining all 10 beaten ZANU PF. tal number of voters in the presidential race in the the presidential and parliamentary races, Chami-
electoral provinces we shall iden- Musikavanhu in Chipinge Dis- same constituency is 32880. According to these fig- sa won the majority vote in the presidential race
tify common themes and some trict is another seat that was lost ures, 18817 people in Mutare North chose to vote Chamisa got 296249 votes while Mnangagwa got
that are unique to each province. by the opposition due to split in the presidential race but not in the parliamen- 292938 votes. However, although Chamisa won the
All these are relevant to political voting. Chamisa beat Mnangag- tary race. province, the majority of just 3311 votes was very
strategists as the country heads wa in the presidential race with Table A: Mutare North Constituency – Presidential small. Therefore, questions regarding the voting fig-
towards the next general elec- a 2433 majority. However, the and Parliamentary Election Results ures in Mutare North deserve serious attention. One
tions in 2023. ZANU PF candidate won the seat Number of voters in the Presidential Election hypothesis is that figures in the presidential race
A tale of two races with 6599 votes in the parliamen- Number of voters in the Parliamentary Election can be deliberately fudged to minimize or enhance
Manicaland has 26 constituen- tary race narrowly beating the Difference between voters in presidential and par- the gap between the candidates.
cies consisting of urban, peri-ur- MDC Alliance’s candidate that liamentary races The size of the gap matters because if you are go-
ban, and rural constituencies. At had 6162 votes. But 2 other op- Mnangagwa: 18999 ing to rig an election in a way that does not raise
the parliamentary level, ZANU PF position candidates got 1855 and Chamisa: 12014 too many questions, you will let your opponent
won 19 seats while the MDC Alli- 1029 votes respectively. A com- Other candidates: 1217 win some provinces but reduce the gap by which
ance won the remaining 7. How- bined effort by opposition can- Total: 32880 they are winning. And where you win, you win big
ever, although none of the oth- didates would have defeated the ZANU PF: 6511 so that you maintain an unassailable advantage.
er parties and independents won ZANU PF candidate with a major- MDC Alliance: 3962 This means as a player in the electoral process, you
any seat in parliament, as we ity of 2447, very similar to the ma- NPF: 3229 must pay special attention to the numbers and not
shall see, in some cases they had jority that Chamisa had ahead of ZIPP: 154 just be drawn to the broad narrative of winning
an influential role in the outcome Mnangagwa. PRC:137 or losing a province. In this election, while Chami-
of the constituency race. In the Mutare North could have been Total: 14063 Presidential race: 32880 sa won Manicaland with a narrow majority of just
presidential race, ZANU PF’s can- won by the opposition if the op- Parliamentary race: 14063 3331 votes, in Mashonaland West which we exam-
didate, Emmerson Mnangagwa position parties had agreed to Difference: 18817 ined last week, Mnangagwa won with a majority of
won 17 constituencies, two less field a single candidate against Source: Zimbabwe Electoral Commission website 94430 votes. Therefore, although they each won a
than his party’s tally, while the ZANU PF. Candidates of the MDC In other words, the ZEC would have us believe province, Mnangagwa’s lead would be 91009 votes.
MDC Alliance’s Nelson Chamisa Alliance and the NPF had 3962 that most voters in Mutare North did not bother to This underlines once again why every vote matters
won 9, 2 more than his party’s to- and 3922 respectively, a total vote in the parliamentary race but chose to focus in the presidential race.
tal. of 7261 votes between them. By only on the presidential race. This figure is far more Rural-Urban Divide
The MDC Alliance did not do contrast, the ZANU PF candidate than the total number of people who voted in the One of the reasons why Chamisa won the popular
as well as its presidential candi- who won had 6511 votes. parliamentary election. Analysis of the polling sta- vote in Manicaland is that the province has impor-
date because it lost seats to split Red Flag in Mutare North tion registration data shows that 36806 voters are tant urban areas that have large population densi-
voting in the parliamentary race. However, Mutare North pro- registered to vote in Mutare North. This would mean ties, and the opposition traditionally performs bet-
Some voters were prepared to vides the first sign of chron- the voter turnout in the presidential race was 89% ter in urban zones. Chamisa drew his biggest vote
vote for Chamisa in the presiden- ic problems that affect Zimba- while in the parliamentary race it was just 38.2%. in Dangamvura/Chikanga, the sprawling high-den-
tial race but they preferred oth- bwe’s electoral system. There is This is hard to believe. sity zone of Mutare where he got 37370 votes com-
er opposition candidates in the a glaring divergence in the num- Something truly smells fishy in the Mutare North pared to Mnangagwa’s 11750 giving him a majori-
parliamentary race. For example, ber of voters who participated in election numbers. Therefore, it is important to carry ty of 25650.
Chamisa won Mutasa North with the presidential and parliamen- out a more systematic analysis of the voting figures,
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a 1380 majority. However, the tary races. The ZANU PF candi- comparing the number of voters that supposed- But ZEC registration figures show that this con-