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Stainless production forecasts – a big hit to production in

2020

Year Year Year
'000t 2019 2020F 2021F
USA 2600 2127 2318 ➔We expect a strong recovery in
Japan 2964 2462 2696
Europe 6784 5889 6282 stainless steel demand in 2021,
Korea 2349 2074 2300
Taiwan 997 843 725 assuming no further Covid setbacks
India 3723 2627 3284
China 30611 31328 32581 ➔Unlike 2020, however, Chinese
Indonesia 2265 2588 3000
Total (inc others) 53288 50788 54026 recovery may be muted compared to
Total Ex-China/Indonesia 20412 16872 18445
rest of he world since it happened
% change yoy
USA -7.4% -18.2% 9.0% earlier and govt likely to cool the
Japan -9.7% -16.9% 9.5%
Europe -8.1% -13.2% 6.7% economy after stronger than
Korea -2.5% -11.7% 10.9%
Taiwan -14.9% -15.5% -14.0% anticipated 2020 recovery
India -7.4% -29.4% 25.0%
China 10.0% 2.3% 4.0% ➔Non-Chinese recovery could be even
Indonesia 3.8% 14.3% 15.9%
Total World 2.0% -4.7% 6.4% stronger than we project
Total Ex-China/Indonesia -8.1% -17.3% 9.3%

Source: CRU, ISSF, Macquarie Commodities Strategy, October 2020
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