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Recovery in Chinese stainless steel prices and large
speculative buying on SHFE drive nickel price recovery
Chinese SHFE prices for nickel and stainless steel SHFE nickel
R-squared = 88% Daily traded volume
18500 2050
2000000
17500
1950 1800000
16500 1600000
SHFE Ni: $/tonne 15500 1850 SHFE stainless: $/tonne 1400000
1200000
1750
14500
13500 Lots (1t) 1000000
1650
800000
12500
600000
1550
11500
400000
10500 1450 200000
Oct 19 Nov 19 Dec 19 Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 0
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
Nickel (front month) Stainless (front month)
Source: SHFE, Macquarie Commodities Strategy, October 2020
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