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Key reasons why stainless is all that matters for now and

why it is all about China/Indonesia

Monthly stainless steel melt production Share of China and Indonesia in world Stainless dominates nickel use and Indonesia
3.5 stainless steel production and China dominate nickel in stainless
low scrap use
stainless 75% 82% 81%
3.0 80%
70% 2019 2020F
78%
million tonnes 65% 76% 74% 73%
2.5
74%
2.0
60%
72%
70%
70%
55%
1.5 68%
high scrap use
stainless
66%
50%
1.0 64%
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 45% Stainless share in total nickel China/Nickel share in primary
use
nickel used to make stainless
steel
Indonesia+China World ex-Indonesia+China

Source: CRU, INSG, ISSF, Industry statistics, Macquarie Commodities Strategy, October 2020
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