Page 26 - Georgetown Retail Merchandising Plan 11.7.16 - FINAL

Retail Demand

DEMAND AND OPPORTUNITY are potential consumers. I-35 and US 183 are already busy supply is 597,000, representing an over-supply in grocery.
commuter corridors in the PTA, and SH 195 and the SH 130 However, with future growth projected, the 2046 demand
RETAIL DEMAND Toll road will command retail gravity as the metro population shows capacity for 268,089 square feet of grocery demand
Catalyst investigated spending patterns in the Georgetown Primary continues to expand northward and increase in density. Currently, due to the increased demand from the additional population
Trade Area (PTA) to estimate current demand and project future retail commuter demand creates an additional 38,000 square feet of growth and typical grocer spend per capita.
demand. The results indicate that about half of the North American additional retail demand in Georgetown today.
Industry Classification System (NAICS) retail categories have [Note: For this analysis, supply is held constant and demand is
significant leakage to neighboring markets, denoted by the figures Workforce is also a strong component of demand. Georgetown anticipated to increase by the categorical demand per capita
in the “2016 Leakage” column in the following table. The following has a current employment of over 24,500. The workforce demand over time.]
Potential Supportable Retail Square Footage by Category creates over 110,000 square feet of annual demand.
table shows the projected demand by category for 2016 and The projection shows greatest current demand for department
2046, including the estimated individual demand from student, Student demand is a small component in Georgetown. It is stores at 320,638 square feet, general merchandise stores
workforce, commuter, visitor, and residential demand. anticipated to create 2,500 square feet of retail demand. at 316,004 square feet, restaurants at 70,937 square feet,
limited-service restaurants at 83,748 square feet and specialty
CURRENT DEMAND The aggregate retail demand is 3.7 million square feet and total stores at 56,478 square feet.
Retail demand for Georgetown can be traced to several sources. current supply is 3.646 million. However, the current retail “gap”
The primary driver of most retail demand is from households in or “leakage,” based upon unmet demand in individual categories The 2046 projected demand shows the greatest demand for
the area. Typically, the residential component of the community would support approximately 1.015 million square feet. department and general merchandise stores. The third highest
provides up to 80% of total local retail demand in a given area. category is grocery at 268,089 square feet.
Based upon current population and income, the total Purchasing FUTURE DEMAND
Power is over $3.9 billion. Disposable income, what remains To estimate future demand, Catalyst projected demand from HOUSEHOLD SPENDING
after taxes and other expenses, is an important component 2016 to 2046. The STI growth rate is estimated to be 20.44%. Current ESRI estimates show the annual per capita expenditures
of retail demand for Georgetown. The current retail demand The compound annual growth rate (“CAGR”) for Georgetown within Georgetown are $29,324. In Georgetown, retail goods
from residential generates demand to support approximately is 3.79%. Using the CAGR, Catalyst projected the per capita represent approximately 32% of spending compared to 24%
3.5 million square feet of retail annually. For example, Sun City demand for each category by the population increase to calculate spent on retail goods in Texas, and 17% in the US. This equals
currently has over 7,500 households and is projected to reach the future demand for the PTA. Catalyst projections show that by $9,306 spent on retail per capita by Georgetown residents in
over 10,000 units at build-out, over the next few years. Today, 2046, the Georgetown PTA can support up to 2.4 million square feet 2015.
Sun City purchasing power generates over $209,557,620 of of currently unmet retail demand. The largest unmet demand is in
retail demand, or enough to support almost 700,000 square feet the grocery, restaurant, department store, general merchandise, gas APPAREL AND SERVICES
of retail, which is almost 20% of the total household demand for stations, sporting goods, electronics and health and personal care In conjunction with the department store “leakage,” there is
the PTA. Assuming one-hundred percent capture in Georgetown, categories also greater spend per capita in “Apparel and Services” by
this would generate over $4.1 million in annuals sales tax to the Georgetown residents. The Georgetown spend per capita is
City. While the PTA is under-supplied in most categories, the $868 per year, which is 20% greater than the Texas average.
methodology accounts for any deficiencies in demand due to Of this, Men’s apparel is $173 per capita, which is 21.5%
Commuter demand, generated by the commuter traffic passing existing supply for each category. For example, in the PTA the greater than the Texas average. Footwear is $180, which is
by a given location, is a key driver as a percentage of commuters grocery store shows total square feet demand of 478,000 and 16% higher than the Texas average. Women’s apparel is 26%

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