Page 16 - MS Year in Review 2020

planning is to create different scenarios under different assumptions about the

length of the crisis.

Three Scenarios for Planning

Three assumptions seem relevant here: 1) “Quick recovery” by the end of May or
June, 2) “Intermediate disruption” by year end, 3) “Prolonged economic

disruption” of more than one year.

Scenario 1: Quick recovery – Under this scenario, business will start returning to
“normal” end of May or beginning of June. Businesses will need to restore

operations as quickly as possible and take advantage of every opportunity to
compensate for the suffered losses.

Scenario 2: “Intermediate Disruption” by year end. Under this scenario,

the” COVID – 19 virus” will disrupt business until year end. Consequently, 2020 will
result in negative economic growth and many businesses will face financial losses

and at least temporarily layoff people or reduce their compensation until
recovery. Some industries will be seriously damaged (travel, hotels,
tourism, service, manufacturing, travel, etc.) and some businesses will go bankrupt.

Although recovery will start this year, it will be slow and gradual. Companies will

need to prepare for difficulties but also seek new opportunities to keep operations,
increase their competitive advantages in order to secure as much business as
possible and make attempts to compensate for some of the losses.

Scenario 3: “Prolonged economic disruption” of more than one year . Under
this scenario, the Global economy will experience a depression, possibly similar to
what was experienced in the 1930s. It is also possible that this will lead to a

restructuring of the global economy, with a partial retreat from globalization.
Although this scenario will be very destructive in both economic and social terms,

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