Page 33 - Flight International (January 2020)

ENVIRONMENT

Are biofuels

the future?

Aviation is one of the hardest industries to decarbonise – not
least because demand for air travel is likely to increase – but
political backing for sustainable fuels could have a big impact

“The target for 2050 should be a 100% re-
KERRY REALS LONDON
duction,” says Turner, adding that this should
ommercial flights could be fully be “possible” to achieve without relying on
powered by low-carbon fuels by carbon offsetting. The route should instead
2050, according to the former chair involve electrification of short-haul flights
C of the UK Committee on Climate and a shift to 100% drop-in low-carbon fuels
Change, but only if the right regulatory frame- for long-haul flights, he adds.
works are put in place and airlines accept the As things stand, aircraft electrification
cost penalty, in addition to agreeing to buy efforts are still in their infancy and the use of Europe. This could increase aviation emis-
sufficient volumes to enable production to be sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is restricted sions by 83% by 2050 in a business-as-usual
scaled up. both by a 50% blend limit with conventional scenario,” he warns.
In a keynote speech at the Royal Aero- jet fuel and negligible supplies. Biofuels cur- “This is a sector where we don’t see enor-
nautical Society’s Greener by Design confer- rently represent less than 1% of the world’s mous potential to reduce demand. Yes, you
ence in London in early November, Lord total jet fuel supply. Nevertheless, the avia- can shift short routes to rail; yes, you can
Adair Turner, who now chairs the Energy tion industry has “got to do something radi- video conference; yes, you can have higher
Transitions Commission (ETC) – a group cal” to address its growing emissions prob- prices; and yes, you can have better air traffic
specialising in the decarbonisation of hard-to- lem, Turner believes. management – but it’s difficult to believe you
abate sectors – also urged the airline industry can reduce demand by more than 15%.
to set more ambitious carbon dioxide (CO2) MORE FLYING There’s some mileage there but it’s not the
emissions reduction goals. “Aviation is going to be a tricky sector of the complete answer.”
The target set by IATA a decade ago calls economy [to decarbonise] because demand is Switching over to alternative fuels will be
for a 50% reduction in net aviation CO2 emis- very likely to increase. Once people get to a expensive, however, with biofuels costing up
sions by 2050, relative to 2005 levels, and middle income, one of the things they want to to three times more than conventional kero-
carbon-neutral growth from 2020. do is fly as much as they do in [the USA] and sene. But as the ETC points out in a 2018 re-
port on decarbonising aviation, the addition-
Less than 1% of total jet fuel al cost is a pill that might have to be
supply comes from biofuels swallowed if the airline industry wants to
continue growing.
“Given that biofuels and synfuels [synthet-
ic fuels] are the only technically feasible way
to decarbonise aviation… [their use] will nec-
essarily entail accepting this cost penalty,”
says the report. The price differential between
conventional and low-carbon fuels will prob-
ably be in place “for many decades”, making
aviation “one of the most expensive sectors to
decarbonise in the global economy”.
However, any subsequent rise in air fares
“would not produce a dramatic reduction in
demand for air travel, given the high-income
elasticity and low-price elasticity of consumer
behaviour”, according to the report.
“If it came down to a 25 cent per litre differ-
ence, this would add $40 to a 6,500km
Shutterstock [3,510nm] journey per passenger, which
doesn’t seem like a high price to pay to decar-

34 | Flight International | 28 January-3 February 2020 flightglobal.com