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138     CHAPTER 8. INFERENCE FOR SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION


                                 and

                                                                        ̂
                                                               ̂
                                                ̂
                                                 ±      /2,  −2  ⋅ SE[   ]     ±      /2,  −2  ⋅       
                                               1
                                                               1
                                                                        1
                                                                                   √       
                                 where      /2,  −2  is the critical value such that   (     −2  >      /2,  −2 ) =   /2.
                                 8.5    Hypothesis Tests

                                      “We may speak of this hypothesis as the ‘null hypothesis’, and it
                                      should be noted that the null hypothesis is never proved or estab-
                                      lished, but is possibly disproved, in the course of experimentation.”
                                      — Ronald Aylmer Fisher

                                 Recall that a test statistic (TS) for testing means often take the form:

                                                                 EST − HYP
                                                           TS =
                                                                     SE
                                 where EST is an estimate for the parameter of interest, HYP is a hypothesized
                                 value of the parameter, and SE is the standard error of the estimate.
                                 So, to test


                                                        ∶    =    00  vs    ∶    ≠    00
                                                          0
                                                                            0
                                                       0
                                                                        1
                                 we use the test statistic
                                                            ̂
                                                                        ̂
                                                              −    00     −    00
                                                            0
                                                                        0
                                                          =        =
                                                                ̂
                                                           SE[   ]      √ +         
                                                                         1
                                                                              2
                                                                              ̄   
                                                                0
                                                                        
                                                                           
                                 which, under the null hypothesis, follows a    distribution with    − 2 degrees of
                                 freedom. We use    00  to denote the hypothesized value of    .
                                                                                     0
                                 Similarly, to test
                                                        ∶    =    10  vs     ∶    ≠    10
                                                       0
                                                                        1
                                                                            1
                                                          1
                                 we use the test statistic
                                                             ̂
                                                                        ̂
                                                               −          −   
                                                           =  1   10  =  1  10
                                                                 ̂
                                                             SE[   ]     /√       
                                                                         
                                                                 1
                                 which again, under the null hypothesis, follows a    distribution with   −2 degrees
                                 of freedom. We now use    10  to denote the hypothesized value of    .
                                                                                           1
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