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Cross-ethnic Vote-pooling in West Malaysia 73

Following Ratnam and Milne’s precedent (1967, 1970), we can compute
a rough estimate of Malay support based on the following assumptions. First,
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we assume the turnout rate to be more or less the same for all ethnic groups.
Secondly, Merdeka Center reportedly found that 95 per cent of Chinese
voters voted for PH while 70–75 per cent of Indian voters supported PH. On
the other hand, 35–40 per cent of Malay voters reportedly supported BN,
while another 30–33 per cent supported PAS, and only the remaining 25–
30 per cent voted for PH (Malaysian Insight 2018). ese rates presumably
vary depending on the seat, candidate, and opponent party involved. Given a
choice, a Malay voter would arguably be the least inclined to support a DAP
candidate among the four component parties of PH. Hence we estimate Malay
support in DAP-MCA straight ghts as well as in three-cornered DAP-MCA-
PAS contests by assuming that 95 per cent of Chinese voters and 75 per cent
of Indian voters voted for DAP.
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In the one-to-one contests, we calculated the proportion of Malay
support for MCA and DAP separately. First, we estimated the number of
non-Malay voters who supported the respective candidates (based on the
two aforementioned assumptions) in each of the 12 seats, and derived each
candidate’s estimated number of Malay votes by deducting those non-Malay
votes from the total votes each candidate obtained. Since we know the ethnic
breakdown of voters in each constituency, we can express our estimated
Malay vote in terms of the percentage of Malay support. Table 4.12 lists the
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computed percentage of Malay support for each MCA and DAP candidate.
e percentages of Malay support for DAP and MCA should sum to
100 per cent; that they do not, coming within 2 per cent of the mark in only
ve constituencies, con rms that the ratio of support by ethnic group varied
across seats, likely due to local features or issues. Nonetheless, the gures give
a rough idea of the distribution of Malay votes. Estimated support for MCA
ranges from 24.0 to 69.4 per cent, with an average of 52.1 per cent, while that
for DAP hovers between 19.8 and 81.2 per cent, with an average of 50.2
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per cent. In other words, Malay support for DAP and MCA appears to be
quite evenly split, albeit with a slight edge for MCA. is indicates a greatly
enhanced acceptance of DAP candidates among Malay voters on Peninsular
Malaysia’s west coast (where these constituencies are located). is shift is
quite an achievement for DAP, which UMNO has demonised for decades as
anti-Malay.

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