Page 177 - The Design Thinking Playbook

HOW MIGHT WE...

apply Pictures of the Future?

Pictures of the Future (Siemens) link realistic current trends with distant future scenarios to align and direct
business activities. For one, the future scenarios created can be used well to formulate or redefine the
starting question in design thinking, and can give further momentum to the process of creative problem
solving on the team.

Step 1: We extrapolate from the world of today Step 3: We “retropolate” from the world of tomorrow
We start with the daily business of our company and look at the trends, from which we extrapolate how We carry out a retropolation from the scenarios. The point here is to
the near future of our company might look. Data and information from different sources, such as industry draw conclusions for the present from the “known” facts of the future
reports and interviews with experts, are analyzed. The fastest way to reach our goal is to fall back upon scenario. We juxtapose the results from step 1 with those of step
the known trends in an industry, like internal trend reports and market analyses, which are freely available 2, combine them, and infer from that what it means, in very specific
on the Internet. For example, we take the general Gartner Technology Hype Cycle as a starting point. Our terms, for the alignment and direction of our company today. In which
best course is first to compile a provisional list of trends; discuss them briefly on the team; and note the directions should we innovate and do research? What skills must
estimated importance, strength of impact, and the degree of maturity of the relevant industry. be developed? What personnel should be hired? And how should
processes be redesigned so we are prepared for coming challenges
Step 2: We apply strategic visioning and opportunities?
We detach ourselves completely from our own business focus and our own professional blindness and
design various distant future scenarios with a true outside-in perspective, independent of our own
company (in the example, four scenarios have turned out to be ideal). Because we are dealing with distant
scenarios, elaborate studies are usually carried out with the inclusion of worldwide research. Luckily,
Siemens has already done this work for many industries with their Pictures of the Future and has made the
results available free of charge (among others, from the sectors of energy, digitization, industry, automa-
tion, mobility, health, finance, etc.). We choose a positive, constructive, and profitable scenario and ask
ourselves: “How might our company make a maximum contribution to this scenario? What would we have
to do and offer?” We stay in the future in our thoughts and do not allow the processes and structures of
our company today to influence us.

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