Page 213 - (DK) The Business Book
P. 213
WORKING WITH A VISION 211
PLANS ARE USELESS,
BUT PLANNING IS
INDISPENSABLE
SCENARIO PLANNING
n addition to contingency publicly. However, it never comments
IN CONTEXT planning, which involves on the scenarios it discloses, since
I preparing for sudden disaster, this might guide other companies’
FOCUS
companies also need to prepare for or governments’ decisions.
Business planning
the many alternative futures they Shell’s scenario planning allowed
KEY DATES face. This is known as scenario it to minimize the impact of an oil
Early 19th century Prussian planning. It has its roots in military embargo on Western countries in
military strategist Carl von planning, and companies start the October 1973. Within weeks, the
Clausewitz formulates the process by asking: “what if…?” price of crude oil had soared and
principles of strategic planning. What is likely to happen in stock markets tumbled. Although
the next two, five, or ten years? Shell was hit by these events, it had
1940s The US Air Force Companies have to consider local, already begun to diversify into other
considers opponents’ possible national, and international events, energy sources, allowing it to recover
actions in order to prepare and must try to identify underlying more quickly than competitors. ■
alternative strategies. trends. They have to determine the
probability of future scenarios,
1950s US futurist and military
how they might be affected, and
strategist Herman Kahn
how they can prepare to mitigate
encourages governments
the effects, or even to reap the
and individuals to “think the
benefits. Scenario planning does
unthinkable” by imagining
not remove uncertainty, but it can
possible future scenarios.
help a company adapt to change.
1967 French philosopher
Bertrand de Jouvenel coins Prepared for change
the term futurible to mean Oil company Royal Dutch Shell has
“a fan of possible futures.” used scenario planning for nearly During the OPEC oil embargo of
half a century. Its early work was
21st century Companies 1973, Shell’s scenario planning meant
based on intuition, but it has now it had already decided what it would
and governments use scenario
developed sophisticated techniques do in the case of price hikes, allowing
planning for wide-ranging to create scenarios, which it shares its executives to act fast and effectively.
issues including food, water,
and energy supply, and
See also: Managing risk 40–41 ■ Learning from failure 164–65 ■ Avoiding
population growth. complacency 194–201 ■ Contingency planning 210 ■ Coping with chaos 220–21
